Garuda Lions
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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima

1 – 0 Full time

23′Mateo PuertaEmerson Rodriguez
36′Edwar López
42′Nahuel Bustos
45′Victor Moreno
45′Daniel TorresJhojan Torres
45′Victor MorenoEmanuel Olivera
61′Nahuel Bustos
62′Adrián ParraJorge Hurtado
62′Edwar LópezS. Aguayo
65′Emanuel Olivera
73′Nahuel BustosHugo Rodallega
73′Alexis ZapataFranco Fagúndez
76′Juan Jose Mera GonzalezJherson Mosquera
76′Sebastian GuzmanCristian Trujillo
82′Maximiliano LoveraJader Obrian
84′Junior HernandezShean Barbosa
86′Luis SanchezSantiago Joven Jiménez
90′Jherson Mosquera

Estadio El Campin, BogotaReferee: Carlos Ortega

Santa Fe 43%
Draw 29%
Deportes Tolima 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 2
44 Possession % 56
5 Corners 5
11 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1
2 Saves 3
337 Accurate passes 446

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySanta FeDrawDeportes Tolima
Model55.9%27.2%16.9%
Market38.2%30.2%31.5%
Final42.6%29.5%27.9%
Edge+17.6%-3.0%-14.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Santa Fe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.78.
  • The market prices Santa Fe below the model: +17.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Santa Fe ↓ / Deportes Tolim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 14% 13% 2 12% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 10%

Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima expected goals

Santa Fe 1.60
Deportes Tolima 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.37

Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings

Santa Fe

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Deportes Tolima

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction

Santa Fe 1 – 0 Deportes Tolima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Santa Fe 42.6% 2.34 +17.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.6% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 55.8% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.2% 2.26 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Santa Fe42.6%
Draw29.5%
Deportes Tolima27.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%
Both teams to scoreYes44.2%
No55.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.1%
12 (either side)70.5%
X2 (draw or away)57.4%
Handicap -1Santa Fe win30.8%
Push (exactly one goal)25.1%
Loss44.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-013.7%
1-112.7%
2-011.9%

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima stats

Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima recent form

newest first
Santa Fe DDWDDD
Deportes Tolima WWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Santa Fe and Deportes Tolima going into this match

league record before kick-off

Santa Fe record

  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Deportes Tolima record

  • They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Santa Fe wins 4Draws 3Deportes Tolima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Deportes TolimaSanta FePrimera A2-2
2025-11-29Deportes TolimaSanta FePrimera A1-0
2025-11-26Santa FeDeportes TolimaPrimera A1-2
2025-07-19Deportes TolimaSanta FePrimera A0-1
2025-02-01Santa FeDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-0
2024-09-30Deportes TolimaSanta FePrimera A0-0
2024-06-03Deportes TolimaSanta FePrimera A1-2
2024-05-05Santa FeDeportes TolimaPrimera A1-0
2024-03-16Santa FeDeportes TolimaPrimera A1-1
2023-10-16Deportes TolimaSanta FePrimera A1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 30.0%, away 31.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.30 3.10 3.20
1xBet 2.45 3.04 2.97
888Sport 2.38 2.80 3.10
Bet365 2.50 3.20 2.90
BetVictor 2.40 3.13 2.88
Betano 2.32 3.00 3.25
Betfair 2.38 3.10 3.20
Marathonbet 2.43 3.04 2.95
Pinnacle 2.49 3.14 3.00
SBO 2.20 2.78 2.80
Superbet 2.37 3.15 3.00
Unibet 2.23 3.20 3.30
William Hill 2.30 3.00 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.44 ▲ +0.21
X 3.08 ▼ -0.02
2 2.96 ▼ -0.34

8 snapshots recorded, from .