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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Chico vs Independiente Medellin

2 – 1 Full time

8′S. Mera
10′Jhonier Alomia
27′Jeison Medina
41′Esneyder Mena
45′Agustín Martegani
45′Jhonier AlomiaDaniel Polanco
52′Jacobo PimentelYesus Cabrera
52′Felipe CifuentesA. Maya
57′Sebastian Salazar
60′Juan QuicenoSander Navarro
66′Keiner David Klinger VasquezYony González
66′John MontanoJuan Córdoba
69′A. Maya
73′Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz
74′Sebastian Salazar
79′Agustín MarteganiCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
79′Halam Stiven Loboa DiazDiego Moreno
89′Juan CórdobaAnderson Yair Murillo Mosquera

Estadio La Independencia, TunjaReferee: Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa

Chico 21%
Draw 27%
Independiente Medellin 51%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 5
43 Possession % 57
5 Corners 1
11 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 2
5 Saves 3
247 Accurate passes 360

Chico vs Independiente Medellin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chico vs Independiente Medellin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChicoDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model19.3%26.7%54.0%
Market22.0%27.4%50.6%
Final21.3%27.2%51.5%
Edge-2.7%-0.7%+3.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente Medellin

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Independiente Medellin below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chico ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 12% 11% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Chico and Independiente Medellin expected goals

Chico 0.91
Independiente Medellin 1.66

Total expected goals: 2.56

Chico and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings

Chico

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chico vs Independiente Medellin: result vs prediction

Chico 2 – 1 Independiente Medellin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Chico vs Independiente Medellin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente Medellin 51.5% 1.94 +3.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.7% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.1% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chico21.3%
Draw27.2%
Independiente Medellin51.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.5%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)78.7%
Handicap -1Independiente Medellin win30.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.9%
Loss46.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
0-111.6%
0-210.6%

Chico vs Independiente Medellin stats

Chico and Independiente Medellin recent form

newest first
Chico WDDLLL
Independiente Medellin WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chico and Independiente Medellin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chico record

  • They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 25 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chico vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Chico wins 2Draws 5Independiente Medellin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-22Independiente MedellinChicoPrimera A2-0
2025-07-20ChicoIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-0
2025-02-02Independiente MedellinChicoPrimera A3-0
2024-10-26Independiente MedellinChicoCopa Colombia3-0
2024-10-23ChicoIndependiente MedellinCopa Colombia1-4
2024-08-01Independiente MedellinChicoPrimera A1-0
2024-02-15ChicoIndependiente MedellinPrimera A3-0
2023-08-28Independiente MedellinChicoPrimera A1-1
2023-06-04Independiente MedellinChicoPrimera A0-0
2023-05-31ChicoIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chico vs Independiente Medellin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.0%, draw 27.1%, away 50.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.30 3.45 1.84
1xBet 4.32 3.42 1.82
888Sport 4.20 3.30 1.83
Bet365 4.50 3.50 1.80
BetVictor 4.00 3.40 1.85
Betano 4.50 3.65 1.88
Betfair 4.10 3.50 1.85
Dafabet 4.20 3.40 1.83
Marathonbet 4.33 3.42 1.80
Pinnacle 4.26 3.58 1.86
SBO 3.63 3.08 1.82
Superbet 4.20 3.45 1.85
Unibet 4.70 3.50 1.77
William Hill 4.00 3.30 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.26 ▼ -0.34
X 3.42 ▼ -0.03
2 1.85 ▲ +0.08

10 snapshots recorded, from .