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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin

2 – 2 Full time

16′Fabián Sambueza
21′Yony González
26′Luciano Pons
39′Esneyder Mena
40′Felix Charrupi
45′Jeison Medina
45′Esneyder MenaHayen Palacios
45′Yony GonzálezCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
45′Jhan Carlos Mena HinestrozaDaniel Cataño
51′Juan Quintero
71′John MontanoKeiner David Klinger Vasquez
72′Carlos Romaña
79′Fredy HinestrozaAdrián Murillo
79′Nilson CastrillónMartín Rea
86′Luciano PonsBrandon·Caicedo
86′Emerson BatallaLeonardo Flores
86′Brandon·Caicedo
90′Keiner David Klinger Vasquez

Estadio Américo Montanini, BucaramangaReferee: Carlos Ortega

Bucaramanga 43%
Draw 29%
Independiente Medellin 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 5
32 Possession % 68
1 Corners 8
13 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 1
146 Accurate passes 409

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBucaramangaDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model44.0%27.4%28.6%
Market42.1%29.9%28.1%
Final42.6%29.3%28.2%
Edge+1.9%-2.4%+0.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Bucaramanga

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.21.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bucaramanga ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellin expected goals

Bucaramanga 1.55
Independiente Medellin 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.76

Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings

Bucaramanga

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin: result vs prediction

Bucaramanga 2 – 2 Independiente Medellin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bucaramanga 42.6% 2.35 +1.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.2% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.5% 1.77 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.0% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bucaramanga42.6%
Draw29.3%
Independiente Medellin28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%
Both teams to scoreYes56.5%
No43.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)57.4%
Handicap -1Bucaramanga win22.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss56.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
2-19.2%
1-08.6%

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin stats

Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellin recent form

newest first
Bucaramanga WDDWDD
Independiente Medellin LWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bucaramanga and Independiente Medellin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Bucaramanga record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Bucaramanga wins 0Draws 7Independiente Medellin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-01Independiente MedellinBucaramangaPrimera A1-2
2026-01-13Independiente MedellinBucaramangaFriendlies Clubs3-1
2025-10-29Independiente MedellinBucaramangaPrimera A3-0
2025-05-10BucaramangaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-0
2024-11-04BucaramangaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-3
2024-04-14Independiente MedellinBucaramangaPrimera A1-0
2023-09-26Independiente MedellinBucaramangaPrimera A2-0
2023-04-16BucaramangaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-2
2022-10-20Independiente MedellinBucaramangaPrimera A1-2
2022-04-23BucaramangaIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.1%, draw 29.9%, away 28.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.21 3.08 3.30
Bet365 2.25 3.20 3.30
BetVictor 2.20 3.13 3.20
Betano 2.20 3.10 3.40
Betfair 2.20 3.25 3.25
Marathonbet 2.19 3.08 3.28
Pinnacle 2.26 3.18 3.44
SBO 2.10 2.95 2.98
William Hill 2.20 3.00 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.16
X 3.10 ▼ -0.22
2 3.30 ▼ -0.25

10 snapshots recorded, from .