Garuda Lions
Today
Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

0 – 0 Full time

45′Luis SanchezAdrián Parra
45′Yeicar PerlazaMateus Uribe
54′Brayan Rovira
59′Milton CascoSamuel Velasquez Uribe
59′Edwin CardonaJuan Rengifo
66′Shean BarbosaEdwar López
70′Jorman CampuzanoFelipe Marín
74′Sergio AguayoLuis Sandoval
87′Sebastian GuzmanJuan Jose Mera Gonzalez
87′Ever ValenciaJader Valencia
87′Ian Carlo PovedaEmmanuel Benítez
90′Homer Martinez

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Edwin Trujillo

Atletico Nacional 62%
Draw 23%
Deportes Tolima 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 8
60 Possession % 40
4 Corners 6
12 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
8 Saves 6
405 Accurate passes 243

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico NacionalDrawDeportes Tolima
Model66.3%21.6%12.1%
Market60.0%23.4%16.7%
Final61.5%22.9%15.5%
Edge+6.3%-1.8%-4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Nacional below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Nacio ↓ / Deportes Tolim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 11% 10% 2 12% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima expected goals

Atletico Nacional 2.06
Deportes Tolima 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.84

Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Deportes Tolima

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction

Atletico Nacional 0 – 0 Deportes Tolima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 61.5% 1.63 +6.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score No 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.5% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Atletico Nacional win 42.5% 2.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Nacional61.5%
Draw22.9%
Deportes Tolima15.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%
Both teams to scoreYes48.1%
No51.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.5%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)38.5%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win42.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss33.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.4%
1-011.1%
1-110.3%

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima stats

Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima recent form

newest first
Atletico Nacional WDLWWW
Deportes Tolima DDDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 25 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportes Tolima record

  • They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Atletico Nacional wins 2Draws 3Deportes Tolima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Atletico NacionalDeportes TolimaPrimera A3-1
2026-05-16Deportes TolimaAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-1
2026-03-02Deportes TolimaAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-0
2025-08-02Deportes TolimaAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-0
2025-03-20Atletico NacionalDeportes TolimaPrimera A4-3
2024-12-22Atletico NacionalDeportes TolimaPrimera A2-0
2024-12-19Deportes TolimaAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-1
2024-11-15Deportes TolimaAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-0
2024-04-28Atletico NacionalDeportes TolimaPrimera A3-1
2023-11-09Atletico NacionalDeportes TolimaPrimera A2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.0%, draw 23.4%, away 16.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.55 3.95 5.50
Bet365 1.53 3.90 6.50
BetVictor 1.50 4.00 5.75
Betano 1.55 4.25 6.90
Betfair 1.53 4.00 5.50
Dafabet 1.55 4.10 5.60
Marathonbet 1.53 3.95 5.55
Pinnacle 1.56 4.09 6.05
SBO 1.55 3.44 4.33
William Hill 1.55 3.80 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 ▼ -0.07
X 3.98 ▲ +0.10
2 5.57 ▲ +0.66

10 snapshots recorded, from .