Chico
vs
Atletico Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Nacional
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Chico vs Atletico Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
| Probability | Chico | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 29.0% | 44.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.3% | 29.0% | 44.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.05.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional match preview
Chico is set to face Atletico Nacional in the Primera A on October 17, 2026. According to our model, Chico has a 26% chance of winning, while Atletico Nacional is favored with a 45% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Chico will score 1.05 and Atletico Nacional 1.44, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Chico has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Atletico Nacional has achieved two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, Atletico Nacional has dominated their encounters, winning 8 out of the last 10 meetings, while Chico has managed just 1 victory. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chico and Atletico Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Chico and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings
Chico
Atletico Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Chico vs Atletico Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 44.7% | 2.23 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 26.3% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Atletico Nacional | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Chico vs Atletico Nacional stats
Chico and Atletico Nacional recent form
| Chico |
DWLLWW |
| Atletico Nacional |
DWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chico and Atletico Nacional season so far
Chico record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 25 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-16 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 6-2 |
| 2024-03-17 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-3 |
| 2023-05-07 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2021-02-07 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2020-02-12 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 0-3 |
| 2018-09-30 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.