Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 1
Chico
vs
Atletico Nacional
1 – 4 Full time
| 16′ | Emmanuel Benítez | ||
| 19′ | Juan Diaz | ||
| 38′ | Juan Rengifo | ||
| 45′ | Xavi Rios | ||
| 45′ | Alejandro MayaI. Camargo | ||
| 45′ | Elkin RiveroFelipe Marín | ||
| 45′ | Jacobo PimentelYesus Cabrera | ||
| 45′ | Emmanuel BenítezNicolás Rodríguez | ||
| 50′ | Edwin Cardona | ||
| 56′ | Edwin Cardona | ||
| 62′ | I. Camargo | ||
| 65′ | Sebastian Salazarsebastian viveros | ||
| 65′ | Elías Lautaro CabreraAndrés Sarmiento | ||
| 66′ | Edwin CardonaKevin Parra | ||
| 74′ | Estiven SarriaSander Navarro | ||
| 74′ | S. MeraDelio Ramírez | ||
| 76′ | Juan RengifoJose Escorcia | ||
| 83′ | Juan Diaz | ||
| 85′ | Andrés Sarmiento | ||
| 90′ | Andrés Sarmiento |
Chico
17%
Draw
25%
Atletico Nacional
58%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 231 | Accurate passes | 430 |
Chico vs Atletico Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
| Probability | Chico | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.8% | 29.3% | 46.9% |
| Market | 14.6% | 23.1% | 62.3% |
| Final | 16.9% | 24.6% | 58.4% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +1.6% | -3.8% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Chico and Atletico Nacional expected goals
Chico
0.95
Atletico Nacional
1.43
Total expected goals: 2.38
Chico and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings
Chico
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Atletico Nacional
Attack
1.31 +31%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional: result vs prediction
Chico 1 – 4 Atletico Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Chico vs Atletico Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 58.4% | 1.71 | -3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 16.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Atletico Nacional | 58.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Chico vs Atletico Nacional stats
Chico and Atletico Nacional recent form
| Chico |
LDWLLW |
| Atletico Nacional |
DWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chico and Atletico Nacional going into this match
Chico record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 31 matches.
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 25 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Chico wins
1Draws
8Atletico Nacional wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-16 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 6-2 |
| 2024-03-17 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-3 |
| 2023-05-07 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2021-02-07 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2020-02-12 | Chico | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 0-3 |
| 2018-09-30 | Atletico Nacional | Chico | Primera A | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.4%, draw 23.1%, away 61.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.38 | 4.05 | 1.48 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 3.75 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.60 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 3.95 | 1.57 |
| Marathonbet | 6.30 | 4.05 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 6.55 | 4.23 | 1.51 |
| SBO | 4.94 | 3.50 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
6.34 ▼ -0.28
X
4.03 ▼ -0.10
2
1.49 ▲ +0.04
14 snapshots recorded, from .