Chico
vs
Cucuta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chico
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Chico vs Cucuta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chico vs Cucuta
| Probability | Chico | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.8% | 27.6% | 28.6% |
| Market | 38.5% | 30.8% | 30.6% |
| Final | 39.9% | 30.0% | 30.1% |
| Edge | +5.3% | -3.3% | -2.0% |
Why Chico
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chico below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chico vs Cucuta match preview
Chico faces Cucuta in an upcoming Primera A match with kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. The model assigns probabilities of 42% for a Chico victory, 30% for a draw, and 29% for a Cucuta win. The expected goals for Chico stand at 1.54, while Cucuta is projected at 1.20. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Chico, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form shows Chico with two wins in their last five matches, while Cucuta has won two of their last five. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 52%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 56%. In their last head-to-head encounter, Cucuta secured a win against Chico. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chico and Cucuta expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Chico and Cucuta attack and defence ratings
Chico
Cucuta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page
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Before and after this match
Chico vs Cucuta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 39.9% | 2.51 | +5.3% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 39.9% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Cucuta | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chico win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Chico vs Cucuta stats
Chico and Cucuta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chico and Cucuta season so far
Chico record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta record
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Chico vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Cucuta | Chico | Primera A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chico vs Cucuta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 30.8%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 2.97 | 3.05 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 2.97 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.08 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .