Atletico Nacional
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Nacional
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
| Probability | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.2% | 19.8% | 8.0% |
| Market | 76.9% | 16.1% | 7.0% |
| Final | 75.7% | 17.0% | 7.3% |
| Edge | -4.7% | +3.7% | +1.1% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto match preview
Atletico Nacional is set to face Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of victory for Atletico Nacional, with an 80% probability, while Deportivo Pasto stands at just 6%. The expected goals for Atletico Nacional are significantly higher at 2.77 compared to Deportivo Pasto's 0.69, suggesting a dominant offensive performance from the home side.
In their recent form, Atletico Nacional has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss, while Deportivo Pasto has had a mixed run with two wins, two draws, and one loss. The last three encounters between these teams show Atletico Nacional with two wins and one draw, further emphasizing their historical advantage. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0 in favor of Atletico Nacional.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto attack and defence ratings
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- Once Caldas vs Llaneros
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats
- Chico v Cucuta — match page
Before and after this match
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 75.7% | 1.32 | -4.7% | 1.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 75.7% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 7.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 47.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 27.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% | |
| 3-0 | 10.6% |
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto stats
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto recent form
| Atletico Nacional |
DWDLWW |
| Deportivo Pasto |
DLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto season so far
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 25 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pasto record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Deportivo Pasto | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Deportivo Pasto | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-30 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.9%, draw 16.1%, away 7.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 5.80 | 13.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 5.40 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 5.80 | 13.75 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.00 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .