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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 14

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

3 – 0 Full time

13′E. Cardona
41′X. Rios
50′F. Torijano
52′R. Escorcia
56′A. Reyes
61′D. ChavezJ. Micolta Piedahita
61′M. GilP. Preciado
65′R. EscorciaE. Benitez
65′E. CabreraK. Parra Atehortua
65′E. CardonaN. Rodriguez
68′J. PerlazaJ. Mendez
69′N. GilJ. Rios
73′C. Haydar
73′C. HaydarW. Tesillo
73′S. RojasM. Uribe
80′H. MancillaS. Cordoba
90′J. Rengifo

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Carlos Andrés Márquez Ortega, Colombia

Atletico Nacional 72%
Draw 19%
Deportivo Pasto 9%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 0
63 Possession % 37
3 Corners 2
16 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2
0 Saves 5
516 Accurate passes 262

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico NacionalDrawDeportivo Pasto
Model71.5%20.8%7.7%
Market72.4%18.7%8.8%
Final72.2%19.2%8.6%
Edge-0.2%+0.5%-0.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.51.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Nacio ↓ / Deportivo Past → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 16% 9% 2 16% 8% 3 11% 4+ 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 9%

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto expected goals

Atletico Nacional 1.98
Deportivo Pasto 0.51

Total expected goals: 2.49

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto attack and defence ratings

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Deportivo Pasto

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: result vs prediction

Atletico Nacional 3 – 0 Deportivo Pasto

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 72.2% 1.38 -0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.7% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score No 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 91.4% 1.09 — —
Handicap -1 Atletico Nacional win 46.1% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Nacional72.2%
Draw19.2%
Deportivo Pasto8.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%
Both teams to scoreYes35.3%
No64.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)91.4%
12 (either side)80.8%
X2 (draw or away)27.8%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win46.1%
Push (exactly one goal)25.4%
Loss28.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-016.2%
1-015.6%
3-010.7%

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto stats

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto recent form

newest first
Atletico Nacional LWDWDL
Deportivo Pasto LDLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 26 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 38 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 38 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Pasto record

  • They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8Atletico Nacional wins 2Draws 0Deportivo Pasto wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-29Deportivo PastoAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2025-10-18Deportivo PastoAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-2
2025-04-30Atletico NacionalDeportivo PastoPrimera A3-0
2024-12-05Atletico NacionalDeportivo PastoPrimera A2-1
2024-11-24Deportivo PastoAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-1
2024-10-06Deportivo PastoAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2024-03-24Atletico NacionalDeportivo PastoPrimera A1-0
2023-08-25Atletico NacionalDeportivo PastoPrimera A2-0
2023-06-18Atletico NacionalDeportivo PastoPrimera A3-2
2023-05-20Deportivo PastoAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 72.4%, draw 18.7%, away 8.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.28 4.90 10.50
Bet365 1.28 5.50 9.50
BetVictor 1.25 5.25 10.50
Betano 1.32 5.70 10.75
Betfair 1.25 5.00 11.00
Dafabet 1.28 5.40 9.40
Marathonbet 1.27 4.90 10.50
Pinnacle 1.31 4.74 11.68
SBO 1.24 4.64 7.14
William Hill 1.30 4.60 11.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.28 ▲ +0.08
X 4.95 ▼ -0.95
2 10.50 ▼ -2.70

31 snapshots recorded, from .