Deportes Tolima
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportes Tolima
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportes Tolima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
| Probability | Deportes Tolima | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.0% | 29.2% | 14.7% |
| Market | 63.9% | 22.6% | 13.5% |
| Final | 61.9% | 24.3% | 13.8% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +1.7% | +0.3% |
Why Deportes Tolima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.61.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (our 61.9% × 1.50 − 1).
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto match preview
Deportes Tolima faces Deportivo Pasto in an upcoming Primera A match, with the model assigning a 50% probability of a Tolima victory, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 20% likelihood of a Pasto win. The expected goals for Deportes Tolima stand at 1.36, while Deportivo Pasto is projected at 0.75. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 15% probability.
In terms of recent form, Deportes Tolima has struggled, recording six matches without a win (L-L-D-D-D-D), whereas Deportivo Pasto has shown some resilience with mixed results (D-L-W-W-D-L). The head-to-head record favors Deportes Tolima, who has won three of the last five encounters against Deportivo Pasto, who has secured two victories. The model also indicates a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.05
Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto attack and defence ratings
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas
- America de Cali vs Cucuta
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Jaguares vs Llaneros
Before and after this match
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 61.9% | 1.62 | -2.0% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.0% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 61.9% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 13.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.1% |
| No | 63.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 44.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.4% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 2-0 | 13.3% |
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto stats
Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto recent form
| Deportes Tolima |
LLDDDD |
| Deportivo Pasto |
LLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto season so far
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 15 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pasto record
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Deportivo Pasto | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Deportes Tolima | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Deportivo Pasto | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Deportivo Pasto | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 3-2 |
| 2025-01-28 | Deportes Tolima | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.8%, draw 22.6%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.10 | 6.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.05 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.10 | 6.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 4.03 | 6.99 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 3.60 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .