Atletico Nacional
vs
Independiente Medellin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Nacional
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.77.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
| Probability | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.4% | 18.7% | 9.9% |
| Market | 52.8% | 25.0% | 22.3% |
| Final | 57.4% | 23.4% | 19.2% |
| Edge | +4.7% | -1.6% | -3.1% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Nacional below our published probability: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.5% per unit staked (our 57.4% × 1.82 − 1).
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin match preview
Atletico Nacional hosts Independiente Medellin in a Primera A clash with a strong probability of victory for the home side, sitting at 70%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.39 for Atletico Nacional compared to 0.88 for Independiente Medellin. Recent form shows Atletico Nacional with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Independiente Medellin has won two and lost three.
Historically, Atletico Nacional has dominated their recent encounters, winning three of the last seven matchups, with four ending in draws and Independiente Medellin yet to secure a victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 63%, and both teams are predicted to score at a rate of 54%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- America de Cali vs Cucuta
- Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Llaneros
Before and after this match
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 57.4% | 1.74 | +4.7% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 57.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Independiente Medellin | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 49.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 28.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 3-0 | 9.5% |
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin stats
Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin recent form
| Atletico Nacional |
WLWDWD |
| Independiente Medellin |
LWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin season so far
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 26 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 38 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-04 | Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 5-2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-04 | Independiente Medellin | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 25.0%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.65 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.64 | 4.25 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.29 | 3.61 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .