Once Caldas
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Garuda Lions Prediction: Once Caldas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Once Caldas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira
| Probability | Once Caldas | Draw | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.2% | 29.6% | 16.1% |
| Market | 71.3% | 18.4% | 10.3% |
| Final | 67.1% | 21.2% | 11.8% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +2.8% | +1.5% |
Why Once Caldas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.1% per unit staked (our 67.1% × 1.34 − 1).
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira match preview
Once Caldas is favored to win against Deportivo Pereira, with a 67% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.41 for Once Caldas compared to 0.66 for Deportivo Pereira. Recent form shows Once Caldas with two draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Deportivo Pereira has one win and three draws in the same timeframe.
In their last five encounters, Once Caldas has secured two wins, while Deportivo Pereira has one win and two draws. The probability of a draw stands at 21%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 38%. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 34%, indicating a tendency towards a low-scoring affair. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira attack and defence ratings
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pereira
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Chico v Bucaramanga — match page
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas
- America de Cali vs Cucuta
- Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Llaneros
Before and after this match
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 67.1% | 1.49 | -4.3% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 67.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Deportivo Pereira | 11.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.6% |
| No | 62.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Once Caldas win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira stats
Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira recent form
| Once Caldas |
DWWDLL |
| Deportivo Pereira |
WDDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira season so far
Once Caldas record
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pereira record
- They have won 3 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Deportivo Pereira | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Once Caldas | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Deportivo Pereira | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Deportivo Pereira | Once Caldas | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-20 | Once Caldas | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-03 | Deportivo Pereira | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-23 | Once Caldas | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-10 | Deportivo Pereira | Once Caldas | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-13 | Once Caldas | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-25 | Once Caldas | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.3%, draw 18.4%, away 10.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.05 | 8.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.34 | 5.40 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 5.05 | 8.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.09 | 9.36 |
| SBO | 1.23 | 4.69 | 7.24 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.60 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .