Millonarios
vs
Once Caldas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Millonarios
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Millonarios vs Once Caldas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millonarios vs Once Caldas
| Probability | Millonarios | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.9% | 25.1% | 15.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.9% | 25.1% | 15.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Millonarios
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas match preview
Millonarios will face Once Caldas in the Primera A on October 14, 2026. According to our model, Millonarios holds a 61% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and Once Caldas at 15%. The expected goals for Millonarios is 1.81, compared to 0.78 for Once Caldas. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a probability of 13%.
Recent form shows Millonarios with mixed results, recording three draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Once Caldas has struggled, with only one win in their last six outings. In their last six head-to-head encounters, Millonarios has secured one win, while both teams have drawn four times, and Once Caldas has also claimed one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millonarios and Once Caldas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Millonarios and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings
Millonarios
Once Caldas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas v Jaguares — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Chico
- Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats
- Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira
- Bucaramanga v Junior — match page
- Llaneros vs America de Cali — team news & stats
- Independiente Medellin v Santa Fe — match page
Before and after this match
Millonarios vs Once Caldas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 59.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Once Caldas | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 2-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Millonarios vs Once Caldas stats
Millonarios and Once Caldas recent form
| Millonarios |
DDDWWD |
| Once Caldas |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millonarios and Once Caldas season so far
Millonarios record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-30 | Millonarios | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Millonarios | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-09 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-06 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.