Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 13
Millonarios
vs
Once Caldas
1 – 1 Full time
| 28′ | M. SamuelR. Urena | ||
| 46′ | S. Mosquera | ||
| 65′ | J. Cardona | ||
| 66′ | D. SilvaS. Viveros | ||
| 66′ | L. CastroR. Contreras | ||
| 68′ | D. Ruiz | ||
| 77′ | J. QuinonesD. Moreno | ||
| 82′ | P. GomezE. Torres | ||
| 85′ | S. Vega | ||
| 86′ | J. Cuadrado | ||
| 87′ | D. Ruiz | ||
| 89′ | D. Moreno | ||
| 90′ | M. Barrios | ||
| 90′ | J. A. Zapata RamirezJ. Alvarado |
Millonarios
56%
Draw
25%
Once Caldas
19%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 342 | Accurate passes | 383 |
Millonarios vs Once Caldas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millonarios vs Once Caldas
| Probability | Millonarios | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.6% | 25.6% | 16.8% |
| Market | 55.5% | 24.9% | 19.6% |
| Final | 56.1% | 25.1% | 18.9% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.2% | -0.7% |
Why Millonarios
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.84.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
9%
Millonarios and Once Caldas expected goals
Millonarios
1.75
Once Caldas
0.84
Total expected goals: 2.59
Millonarios and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings
Millonarios
Attack
1.36 +36%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Once Caldas
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas: result vs prediction
Millonarios 1 – 1 Once Caldas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Internacional de Bogota v Atletico Nacional — match page
- Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas v Jaguares — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Chico
- Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats
- Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira
- Bucaramanga v Junior — match page
- Llaneros vs America de Cali — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Millonarios vs Once Caldas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 56.1% | 1.78 | +0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 56.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Once Caldas | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
Millonarios vs Once Caldas stats
Millonarios and Once Caldas recent form
| Millonarios |
WDDDWW |
| Once Caldas |
WWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millonarios and Once Caldas going into this match
Millonarios record
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas record
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Millonarios wins
5Draws
3Once Caldas wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-30 | Millonarios | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Millonarios | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-09 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-06 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-08 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-28 | Millonarios | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-22 | Millonarios | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Once Caldas | Millonarios | Primera A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Millonarios vs Once Caldas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.5%, draw 24.9%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.74 | 4.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.74 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.76 | 5.03 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.32 | 4.09 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.67 ▼ -0.04
X
3.74 ▲ +0.22
2
4.75 ▼ -0.03
13 snapshots recorded, from .