Independiente Medellin
vs
Once Caldas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente Medellin
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
| Probability | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.7% | 27.0% | 21.3% |
| Market | 47.8% | 27.5% | 24.8% |
| Final | 48.8% | 27.4% | 23.9% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -0.5% | -3.5% |
Why Independiente Medellin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.97.
- The market prices Independiente Medellin below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas match preview
Independiente Medellin faces Once Caldas in their upcoming Primera A match, with the model indicating a 49% probability of a home victory and a 28% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Independiente Medellin will score 1.53, while Once Caldas is forecasted to net 0.99.
Recent form shows Independiente Medellin with a record of L-D-L-W-D-L, while Once Caldas has W-D-L-L-W-L. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Independiente Medellin has secured 2 wins and 1 draw against Once Caldas, who has yet to win in this matchup. The model indicates a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings
Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Jaguares — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page
Before and after this match
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 48.8% | 2.05 | +4.0% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 48.8% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Once Caldas | 23.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas stats
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas recent form
| Independiente Medellin |
WLDLWD |
| Once Caldas |
WDLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas season so far
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas record
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Once Caldas | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Once Caldas | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 1-5 |
| 2025-04-20 | Independiente Medellin | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Once Caldas | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-17 | Independiente Medellin | Once Caldas | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Once Caldas | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-11 | Independiente Medellin | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2022-07-24 | Independiente Medellin | Once Caldas | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-05 | Once Caldas | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2021-09-18 | Independiente Medellin | Once Caldas | Primera A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 27.5%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.38 | 3.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.38 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.41 | 3.87 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 2.98 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .