Llaneros
vs
Santa Fe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santa Fe
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Llaneros vs Santa Fe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Llaneros vs Santa Fe
| Probability | Llaneros | Draw | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 31.7% | 39.9% |
| Market | 33.8% | 29.9% | 36.3% |
| Final | 32.4% | 30.3% | 37.2% |
| Edge | -5.4% | +1.8% | +3.6% |
Why Santa Fe
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Fe below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe match preview
Llaneros face Santa Fe in the Primera A with the match kicking off on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Santa Fe holds a 40% probability of winning, while Llaneros has a 28% chance, and a draw stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 12% probability. Expected goals indicate Llaneros at 0.97 and Santa Fe at 1.20, suggesting a competitive match.
Recent form shows Llaneros struggling with three consecutive losses, while Santa Fe has bounced back with three wins in their last six matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Llaneros has secured two victories against Santa Fe's single win, highlighting a slight edge for Llaneros in past meetings. However, the current form and expected goals lean in favor of Santa Fe.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Llaneros and Santa Fe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Llaneros and Santa Fe attack and defence ratings
Llaneros
Santa Fe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats
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Before and after this match
Llaneros vs Santa Fe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 37.2% | 2.69 | +3.6% | 2.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 32.4% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Santa Fe | 37.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-1 | 12.3% |
Llaneros vs Santa Fe stats
Llaneros and Santa Fe recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Llaneros and Santa Fe season so far
Llaneros record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Fe record
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Llaneros vs Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Santa Fe | Llaneros | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Santa Fe | Llaneros | Primera A | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-01 | Llaneros | Santa Fe | Primera A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 29.9%, away 36.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 3.14 | 2.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.05 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.70 | 3.14 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.12 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 2.86 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .