Deportivo Pasto
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Pasto
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
| Probability | Deportivo Pasto | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 28.4% | 27.5% |
| Market | 53.1% | 26.8% | 20.2% |
| Final | 50.8% | 27.2% | 22.0% |
| Edge | -9.0% | +1.7% | +7.3% |
Why Deportivo Pasto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.11.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar match preview
Deportivo Pasto faces Alianza Valledupar in an upcoming match with a probability of 49% for a home win, while a draw stands at 28% and an away victory at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.47 for Deportivo Pasto and 1.11 for Alianza Valledupar.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Pasto has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last six matches, while Alianza Valledupar has two wins, one draw, and three losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record shows Deportivo Pasto has not won against Alianza Valledupar in their last three encounters, with two draws and one loss. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Pasto
Alianza Valledupar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page
- Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pasto | 50.8% | 1.97 | -9.0% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pasto | 50.8% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Pasto win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar stats
Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar recent form
| Deportivo Pasto |
DLWWDL |
| Alianza Valledupar |
DLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar season so far
Deportivo Pasto record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Alianza Valledupar | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Deportivo Pasto | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-15 | Alianza Valledupar | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.0%, draw 26.8%, away 20.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.48 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.35 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.48 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.46 | 4.85 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.16 | 4.02 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .