Águilas Doradas
vs
Deportes Tolima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Águilas Doradas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
| Probability | Águilas Doradas | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.5% | 28.1% | 22.4% |
| Market | 33.3% | 29.7% | 37.0% |
| Final | 37.4% | 29.3% | 33.4% |
| Edge | +16.2% | -1.6% | -14.6% |
Why Águilas Doradas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Águilas Doradas below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima match preview
Águilas Doradas will host Deportes Tolima in an upcoming Primera A match, with kickoff set for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Águilas Doradas has a 49% chance of winning, while Deportes Tolima has a 23% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Águilas Doradas, with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for them and 1.00 for Deportes Tolima. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 47%, and both teams are expected to score at a rate of 51%.
In terms of recent form, Águilas Doradas has recorded a mix of results with two draws, one win, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Deportes Tolima has struggled, managing only two draws and four losses in their recent outings. Historically, in their last three encounters, Águilas Doradas has won once, while Deportes Tolima has secured two victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings
Águilas Doradas
Deportes Tolima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Jaguares — team news & stats
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page
Before and after this match
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águilas Doradas | 37.4% | 2.68 | +16.2% | 2.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águilas Doradas | 37.4% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Deportes Tolima | 33.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águilas Doradas win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima stats
Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima recent form
| Águilas Doradas |
DDWLLD |
| Deportes Tolima |
LDDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima season so far
Águilas Doradas record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 15 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 37 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Deportes Tolima | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-25 | Deportes Tolima | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-02 | Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-12 | Deportes Tolima | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-02 | Deportes Tolima | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-18 | Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 0-4 |
| 2023-07-29 | Deportes Tolima | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-06 | Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 4-2 |
| 2022-10-02 | Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 29.8%, away 36.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.20 | 2.47 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.13 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.05 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.20 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.05 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 2.88 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .