Millonarios
vs
Jaguares
Garuda Lions Prediction: Millonarios
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Millonarios vs Jaguares overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millonarios vs Jaguares
| Probability | Millonarios | Draw | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.9% | 20.2% | 13.8% |
| Market | 76.5% | 15.9% | 7.6% |
| Final | 73.9% | 17.0% | 9.2% |
| Edge | -10.5% | +4.4% | +6.2% |
Why Millonarios
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Millonarios vs Jaguares match preview
Millonarios enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while Jaguares has a significantly lower chance at 9%. The expected goals suggest Millonarios is likely to dominate, with an expected score of 2.28 compared to Jaguares' 0.97. Recent form shows Millonarios has had a mixed bag of results, with three draws in their last six matches, while Jaguares has struggled, winning only one of their last six.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a 57% likelihood. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, indicating some uncertainty despite the favorable outlook for Millonarios.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millonarios and Jaguares expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Millonarios and Jaguares attack and defence ratings
Millonarios
Jaguares
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page
Before and after this match
Millonarios vs Jaguares markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 73.9% | 1.35 | -10.5% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.8% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 73.9% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Jaguares | 9.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 43.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 34.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Millonarios vs Jaguares stats
Millonarios and Jaguares recent form
| Millonarios |
DDDWWD |
| Jaguares |
WLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millonarios and Jaguares season so far
Millonarios record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jaguares record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Millonarios vs Jaguares head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Jaguares | Millonarios | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-26 | Millonarios | Jaguares | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-11 | Jaguares | Millonarios | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-13 | Jaguares | Millonarios | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Millonarios | Jaguares | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Millonarios | Jaguares | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2022-05-11 | Jaguares | Millonarios | Copa Colombia | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-22 | Millonarios | Jaguares | Copa Colombia | 3-0 |
| 2022-02-20 | Jaguares | Millonarios | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2021-09-26 | Jaguares | Millonarios | Primera A | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Millonarios vs Jaguares odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.4%, draw 15.9%, away 7.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 5.85 | 12.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 5.75 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 5.20 | 10.50 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 6.50 | 14.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.25 | 5.20 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.20 | 5.85 | 12.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 6.27 | 12.16 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .