Jaguares
vs
Deportes Tolima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportes Tolima
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
| Probability | Jaguares | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 30.9% | 32.1% |
| Market | 19.5% | 26.5% | 54.0% |
| Final | 23.9% | 27.6% | 48.5% |
| Edge | +17.4% | +4.4% | -21.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima match preview
Jaguares will face Deportes Tolima in their upcoming Primera A match, with the model assigning probabilities of 27% for a Jaguares win, 29% for a draw, and 44% for a Deportes Tolima victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expectations for goals suggest a competitive match, with a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, Jaguares has struggled, recording three losses and three draws in their last six matches, while Deportes Tolima has seen three draws, two losses, and one win in the same timeframe. The expected goals indicate Jaguares at 1.30 and Deportes Tolima at 1.19, reflecting a closely contested encounter. The head-to-head record shows Deportes Tolima with one win against Jaguares in their last meeting.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings
Jaguares
Deportes Tolima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 48.5% | 2.06 | -21.8% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 23.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Deportes Tolima | 48.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win | 13.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 67.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima stats
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima recent form
| Jaguares |
LLLDDD |
| Deportes Tolima |
DDDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima season so far
Jaguares record
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Deportes Tolima | Jaguares | Primera A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.5%, draw 26.5%, away 54.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.94 | 3.55 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.45 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.40 | 1.76 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.55 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 4.96 | 3.56 | 1.71 |
| SBO | 4.00 | 3.16 | 1.66 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .