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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 14

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima

3 – 2 Full time

19′Royscer Rafael Colpa Bolano
28′Sebastian GuzmanJuan Jose Mera Gonzalez
37′Ever Valencia
40′Luis Jimenez
45′Shean BarbosaEdwar López
52′Brayan Rovira
58′Sergio AguayoLuis Sandoval
64′Andrés RenteríaDarwin Lopez
64′Cristian AlvarezJohan Beltrán
64′Johar MejiaSantiago Cubides
67′Johan Beltrán
68′Luis Sandoval
77′Adrián Parra
79′Brayan RoviraJader Valencia
81′Wilfrido De la RosaJose Yanez
85′Juan Esteban FrancoAndres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian
87′Adrián Parra
90′Santiago Cubides
90′Darwin Lopez
90′Johan Beltrán

Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, MonteriaReferee: Diaz Vargas, Carlos Alberto

Jaguares 22%
Draw 26%
Deportes Tolima 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 18
5 Shots on target 6
39 Possession % 61
0 Corners 8
14 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
4 Saves 2
252 Accurate passes 401

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJaguaresDrawDeportes Tolima
Model37.0%30.9%32.1%
Market17.4%24.5%58.1%
Final22.3%26.1%51.6%
Edge+4.9%+1.6%-6.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jaguares ↓ / Deportes Tolim → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 10% 1 11% 15% 7% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Jaguares and Deportes Tolima expected goals

Jaguares 1.20
Deportes Tolima 1.10

Total expected goals: 2.31

Jaguares and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings

Jaguares

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.40 +40%

Deportes Tolima

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction

Jaguares 3 – 2 Deportes Tolima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportes Tolima 51.6% 1.94 -6.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.5% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score No 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.7% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.9% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jaguares22.3%
Draw26.1%
Deportes Tolima51.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.5%
Under 2.559.5%
Both teams to scoreYes48.1%
No51.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.4%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)77.7%
Handicap -1Deportes Tolima win13.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss67.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-011.3%
1-010.7%

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima stats

Jaguares and Deportes Tolima recent form

newest first
Jaguares LLLDDD
Deportes Tolima DDDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jaguares and Deportes Tolima going into this match

league record before kick-off

Jaguares record

  • They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Deportes Tolima record

  • They have won 15 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Jaguares wins 3Draws 7Deportes Tolima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-28Deportes TolimaJaguaresPrimera A3-1
2024-08-19JaguaresDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-2
2024-02-15Deportes TolimaJaguaresPrimera A2-0
2023-10-06JaguaresDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-1
2023-04-26Deportes TolimaJaguaresPrimera A1-1
2022-08-06Deportes TolimaJaguaresPrimera A2-2
2022-02-14JaguaresDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-2
2021-08-30JaguaresDeportes TolimaPrimera A0-3
2021-03-13Deportes TolimaJaguaresPrimera A3-2
2020-10-18JaguaresDeportes TolimaPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.4%, draw 24.5%, away 58.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.41 3.76 1.59
Bet365 5.50 3.80 1.60
BetVictor 5.25 3.80 1.57
Betano 6.00 4.00 1.65
Betfair 5.00 3.90 1.60
Dafabet 5.20 3.85 1.61
Marathonbet 5.45 3.76 1.57
Pinnacle 5.82 3.83 1.62
SBO 4.84 3.52 1.53
William Hill 5.00 3.50 1.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.33 ▲ +1.42
X 3.80 ▲ +0.52
2 1.60 ▼ -0.31

12 snapshots recorded, from .