Alianza Valledupar
vs
Águilas Doradas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Valledupar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
| Probability | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.6% | 27.1% | 36.3% |
| Market | 37.6% | 29.7% | 32.8% |
| Final | 37.3% | 29.0% | 33.6% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -2.6% | +3.6% |
Why Alianza Valledupar
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas match preview
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas are set to clash in a closely contested match, with Alianza Valledupar holding a 37% probability of winning compared to Águilas Doradas at 34%, while a draw stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Alianza Valledupar, with an expected goals tally of 1.45 for them and 1.44 for Águilas Doradas.
Recent form shows Alianza Valledupar with a mixed record of L-W-L-W-W-L, while Águilas Doradas has struggled with W-L-L-D-L-D. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 55%, and both teams scoring is projected at 60%. Historically, the last 10 encounters have been evenly matched, with both teams securing 4 wins each and 2 draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas attack and defence ratings
Alianza Valledupar
Águilas Doradas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats
- Chico v Cucuta — match page
Before and after this match
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 37.3% | 2.68 | -1.0% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 37.3% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Águilas Doradas | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Valledupar win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 63.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.4% |
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas stats
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas recent form
| Alianza Valledupar |
LWLWWL |
| Águilas Doradas |
WLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas season so far
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Águilas Doradas | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Águilas Doradas | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-04 | Alianza Valledupar | Águilas Doradas | Copa Colombia | 4-0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Alianza Valledupar | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-06 | Alianza Valledupar | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-17 | Águilas Doradas | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 4-0 |
| 2023-10-15 | Águilas Doradas | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-18 | Águilas Doradas | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-22 | Alianza Valledupar | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 5-3 |
| 2023-04-30 | Alianza Valledupar | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 29.7%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.13 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.15 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.18 | 2.89 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.94 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .