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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 14

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

2 – 2 Full time

4′Cristian Vergara
21′Iván Rojas
33′Fabián SuárezAnthony Vásquez
36′John Ontaneda
45′Anthony Vásquez
45′Deinner QuiñonesMisael Martinez
57′Charly Villegas GonzálezYeiner Londoño
58′Eduar ArízalasMatías Ramírez
62′Jair Castillo
63′Andres Ricaurte
72′Ever Meza
75′Yeiner Londoño
77′Iván RojasSebastián Rodríguez
78′Ricardo MarquezJuan Esteban·Avalo Trejos
78′Andres RicaurteJuan Camilo Roa
79′Frank Lozano
80′Misael Martinez
81′Jair CastilloJosy Pérez
81′Jesús MuñozEver Meza
82′Juan Viveros
84′Juan ViverosPedro Franco
90′Misael Martinez
90′José Flabio Torres Díaz
90′Josy Pérez
90′Misael Martinez
90′Jesus Figueroa

Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, ValleduparReferee: Wilmar Hernando Montano Guevara

Alianza Valledupar 37%
Draw 29%
Águilas Doradas 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 5
59 Possession % 41
6 Corners 5
18 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 2
3 Saves 4
304 Accurate passes 181

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlianza ValleduparDrawÁguilas Doradas
Model36.6%27.1%36.3%
Market37.6%29.7%32.8%
Final37.3%29.0%33.6%
Edge-0.2%-0.6%+0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Alianza Valledupar

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alianza Valled ↓ / Águilas Dorada → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas expected goals

Alianza Valledupar 1.45
Águilas Doradas 1.44

Total expected goals: 2.89

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas attack and defence ratings

Alianza Valledupar

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.49 +49%

Águilas Doradas

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas: result vs prediction

Alianza Valledupar 2 – 2 Águilas Doradas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alianza Valledupar 37.3% 2.68 -0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.3% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.7% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.0% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.4% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alianza Valledupar37.3%
Draw29.0%
Águilas Doradas33.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%
Both teams to scoreYes59.7%
No40.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.4%
12 (either side)71.0%
X2 (draw or away)62.7%
Handicap -1Alianza Valledupar win17.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss63.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
2-18.4%
1-28.4%

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas stats

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas recent form

newest first
Alianza Valledupar LWLWWL
Águilas Doradas WLLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alianza Valledupar record

  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Águilas Doradas record

  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Alianza Valledupar wins 2Draws 4Águilas Doradas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-27Águilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-0
2025-10-18Águilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-0
2025-06-04Alianza ValleduparÁguilas DoradasCopa Colombia4-0
2025-04-26Alianza ValleduparÁguilas DoradasPrimera A0-0
2024-11-06Alianza ValleduparÁguilas DoradasPrimera A3-0
2024-04-17Águilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A4-0
2023-10-15Águilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A3-0
2023-06-18Águilas DoradasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-1
2023-05-22Alianza ValleduparÁguilas DoradasPrimera A5-3
2023-04-30Alianza ValleduparÁguilas DoradasPrimera A2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 29.7%, away 32.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.45 3.10 2.81
Bet365 2.55 3.00 2.90
BetVictor 2.45 3.13 2.80
Betano 2.47 3.15 2.87
Betfair 2.40 3.25 2.80
Marathonbet 2.45 3.10 2.81
Pinnacle 2.55 3.18 2.89
SBO 2.32 2.94 2.64
William Hill 2.45 3.00 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▼ -0.17
X 3.10 ▼ -0.02
2 2.81 ▲ +0.17

12 snapshots recorded, from .