Garuda Lions
Today
Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 14

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

1 – 2 Full time

7′Luis Quiñones
24′Luis Escorcia
37′Mateo CastilloYani Quintero
42′Dany Rosero
45′Dany Rosero
45′Jhon PalaciosMarlon Torres
52′Rafael Carrascal
64′Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz
66′Yony GonzálezJohn Montano
70′Daniel CatañoKeiner David Klinger Vasquez
70′Halam Stiven Loboa DiazBaldomero Perlaza
72′Tomás ÁngelJan Lucumi
80′John Montano
81′Yeison GuzmánDaniel Valencia
84′Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
85′Luis EscorciaKevin Andres Mantilla Camargo
85′Carlos Alberto Lucumi GonzalezEnzo Miguel·Larrosa Martinez
87′Baldomero Perlaza

Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Santiago de CaliReferee: Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa

America de Cali 55%
Draw 26%
Independiente Medellin 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 4
51 Possession % 49
2 Corners 7
9 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2
345 Accurate passes 324

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAmerica de CaliDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model65.4%22.1%12.4%
Market51.7%26.8%21.5%
Final55.1%25.6%19.2%
Edge+3.4%-1.2%-2.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why America de Cali

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices America de Cali below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

America de Cal ↓ / Independiente → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 12% 11% 2 13% 10% 3 8% 6% 4+ 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

America de Cali and Independiente Medellin expected goals

America de Cali 2.01
Independiente Medellin 0.77

Total expected goals: 2.78

America de Cali and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings

America de Cali

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: result vs prediction

America de Cali 1 – 2 Independiente Medellin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 America de Cali 55.1% 1.81 +3.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score No 52.5% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.8% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 America de Cali win 41.4% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2America de Cali55.1%
Draw25.6%
Independiente Medellin19.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
Both teams to scoreYes47.5%
No52.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.8%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)44.9%
Handicap -1America de Cali win41.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss34.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.5%
1-011.5%
1-110.6%

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin stats

America de Cali and Independiente Medellin recent form

newest first
America de Cali WWDLWD
Independiente Medellin LDLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

America de Cali and Independiente Medellin going into this match

league record before kick-off

America de Cali record

  • They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4America de Cali wins 3Draws 3Independiente Medellin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-30Independiente MedellinAmerica de CaliPrimera A2-1
2025-12-02Independiente MedellinAmerica de CaliPrimera A1-1
2025-11-27America de CaliIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-1
2025-11-14Independiente MedellinAmerica de CaliPrimera A3-0
2025-06-20America de CaliIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-1
2025-06-01Independiente MedellinAmerica de CaliPrimera A1-1
2025-05-25America de CaliIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-0
2024-10-15America de CaliIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-0
2024-04-01Independiente MedellinAmerica de CaliPrimera A1-4
2023-12-07Independiente MedellinAmerica de CaliPrimera A2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 26.8%, away 21.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.77 3.45 4.46
Bet365 1.75 3.50 4.75
BetVictor 1.80 3.50 4.20
Betano 1.85 3.60 4.80
Betfair 1.80 3.60 4.20
Dafabet 1.84 3.45 4.20
Marathonbet 1.75 3.45 4.45
Pinnacle 1.79 3.55 4.64
SBO 1.81 3.11 3.67
William Hill 1.80 3.30 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.80 —
X 3.48 ▲ +0.04
2 4.33 ▲ +0.12

12 snapshots recorded, from .