America de Cali
vs
Independiente Medellin
Garuda Lions Prediction: America de Cali
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
| Probability | America de Cali | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 22.1% | 12.4% |
| Market | 51.5% | 26.9% | 21.7% |
| Final | 55.0% | 25.7% | 19.4% |
| Edge | +14.0% | -4.7% | -9.3% |
Why America de Cali
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices America de Cali below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin match preview
America de Cali enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 65%, while Independiente Medellin has a 14% chance of securing a victory. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from America de Cali, with 2.09 expected goals compared to Independiente Medellin's 0.87. Recent form shows America de Cali with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Independiente Medellin has one win, three draws, and one loss.
In their last seven encounters, America de Cali has recorded two wins, while Independiente Medellin has also achieved two victories, with three matches ending in draws. The most likely scoreline for this fixture is 2-0 in favor of America de Cali, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
America de Cali and Independiente Medellin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
America de Cali and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings
America de Cali
Independiente Medellin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
- Once Caldas vs Llaneros
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page
- Chico v Cucuta — match page
Before and after this match
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 55.0% | 1.82 | +14.0% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | America de Cali win | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 55.0% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Independiente Medellin | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | America de Cali win | 41.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin stats
America de Cali and Independiente Medellin recent form
| America de Cali |
WWDLWD |
| Independiente Medellin |
LDLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
America de Cali and Independiente Medellin season so far
America de Cali record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Independiente Medellin | America de Cali | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-02 | Independiente Medellin | America de Cali | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-27 | America de Cali | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Independiente Medellin | America de Cali | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2025-06-20 | America de Cali | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Independiente Medellin | America de Cali | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | America de Cali | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 26.9%, away 21.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.45 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.45 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 3.45 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.51 | 4.58 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.04 | 3.37 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .