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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 13

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe

0 – 1 Full time

30′Alexis Zapata
35′Pablo Eduardo Repetto Aquino
38′Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
43′Agustín Martegani
45′Baldomero PerlazaHalam Stiven Loboa Diaz
45′Keiner David Klinger VasquezFrank Fabra
48′Jader Obrian
52′Emanuel Olivera
58′Luis Escorcia
67′Alexis ZapataMaximiliano Lovera
70′Yony GonzálezCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
73′Daniel Torres
76′Franco FagúndezHugo Rodallega
76′Daniel TorresKilian Toscano
87′Victor Moreno
88′John MontanoNivaldo Erazo
90′Didier Moreno
90′Alfonso Simarra Valdez
90′Nahuel BustosIván Scarpeta
90′Jhojan TorresEwil Murillo

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Jose Bautista

Independiente Medellin 46%
Draw 28%
Santa Fe 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 6
60 Possession % 40
7 Corners 5
11 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1
4 Saves 6
383 Accurate passes 241

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente MedellinDrawSanta Fe
Model40.3%28.0%31.7%
Market48.5%27.7%23.8%
Final46.5%27.7%25.8%
Edge-8.2%+0.3%+7.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Santa Fe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe expected goals

Independiente Medellin 1.46
Santa Fe 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.73

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe attack and defence ratings

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Santa Fe

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: result vs prediction

Independiente Medellin 0 – 1 Santa Fe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente Medellin 46.5% 2.15 -8.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.3% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.4% 1.77 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.2% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.7% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente Medellin46.5%
Draw27.7%
Santa Fe25.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%
Both teams to scoreYes56.4%
No43.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.2%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)53.5%
Handicap -1Independiente Medellin win20.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss59.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
2-18.8%
1-08.3%

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe stats

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe recent form

newest first
Independiente Medellin DLWDLW
Santa Fe WLWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Santa Fe record

  • They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Independiente Medellin wins 4Draws 3Santa Fe wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-23Santa FeIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-1
2025-10-21Independiente MedellinSanta FePrimera A1-1
2025-10-02Santa FeIndependiente MedellinCopa Colombia0-3
2025-09-24Independiente MedellinSanta FeCopa Colombia1-2
2025-06-29Independiente MedellinSanta FePrimera A1-2
2025-06-25Santa FeIndependiente MedellinPrimera A0-0
2025-04-15Santa FeIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-2
2024-10-19Santa FeIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-1
2024-02-11Independiente MedellinSanta FePrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 27.7%, away 23.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.90 3.35 3.92
Bet365 1.95 3.30 4.00
BetVictor 1.91 3.40 3.70
Betano 2.02 3.50 4.10
Betfair 1.91 3.50 3.80
Marathonbet 1.88 3.35 3.90
Pinnacle 1.97 3.44 3.89
SBO 1.88 3.09 3.40
William Hill 1.91 3.25 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▼ -0.09
X 3.35 ▲ +0.15
2 3.89 ▲ +0.15

14 snapshots recorded, from .