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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 4

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios

2 – 2 Full time

24′Luis Escorcia
31′Alfonso Simarra Valdez
39′Hayen Palacios
45′Leonardo Castro
45′Carlos Alberto Lucumi GonzalezNivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez
53′Nivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez
58′Daniel Felipe Ruiz RiveraAndrey Estupinan
59′Juan CuadradoDavid Silva
68′Francisco Chaverra
69′Jorge Arias
72′John MontanoJaidinson Córdoba Urrutia
73′Leonai·Souza de Almeida
78′Yony GonzálezAndres Solano
78′Agustín MarteganiDiego Moreno
83′Leonai·Souza de AlmeidaDarwin Quintero
87′Leonardo CastroAndrés Llinás
87′Francisco ChaverraSebastián Valencia
88′Didier Moreno

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Jairo Londono

Independiente Medellin 40%
Draw 29%
Millonarios 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
2 Corners 4
12 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
322 Accurate passes 335

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente MedellinDrawMillonarios
Model36.1%28.6%35.2%
Market41.3%28.5%30.2%
Final40.0%28.5%31.5%
Edge-5.2%+0.2%+5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente Medellin

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Millonarios → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Independiente Medellin and Millonarios expected goals

Independiente Medellin 1.33
Millonarios 1.31

Total expected goals: 2.64

Independiente Medellin and Millonarios attack and defence ratings

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Millonarios

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios: result vs prediction

Independiente Medellin 2 – 2 Millonarios

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 4 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente Medellin 40.0% 2.50 -5.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.8% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.5% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.9% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente Medellin40.0%
Draw28.5%
Millonarios31.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.0%
No45.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.5%
12 (either side)71.5%
X2 (draw or away)60.0%
Handicap -1Independiente Medellin win16.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss63.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
0-08.4%
2-18.3%

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios stats

Independiente Medellin and Millonarios recent form

newest first
Independiente Medellin LWDLWW
Millonarios DWWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente Medellin and Millonarios going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Millonarios record

  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Independiente Medellin wins 4Draws 3Millonarios wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-02MillonariosIndependiente MedellinPrimera A0-0
2025-08-03Independiente MedellinMillonariosPrimera A1-0
2025-02-16MillonariosIndependiente MedellinPrimera A0-1
2024-07-19Independiente MedellinMillonariosPrimera A1-1
2024-01-21MillonariosIndependiente MedellinPrimera A5-0
2023-12-01Independiente MedellinMillonariosPrimera A2-1
2023-11-26MillonariosIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-0
2023-09-19Independiente MedellinMillonariosPrimera A1-1
2023-06-17MillonariosIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-1
2023-05-21Independiente MedellinMillonariosPrimera A2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 28.5%, away 30.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.24 3.62 3.06
Bet365 2.25 3.30 3.20
BetVictor 2.25 3.25 3.00
Betano 2.30 3.15 3.15
Betfair 2.20 3.40 3.00
Marathonbet 2.24 3.15 3.10
Pinnacle 2.32 3.21 3.22
SBO 2.14 2.99 2.72
William Hill 2.20 3.30 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.24 ▲ +0.03
X 3.25 ▼ -0.04
2 3.06 ▼ -0.03

9 snapshots recorded, from .