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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 12

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios

1 – 1 Full time

15′Chicho ArangoAndrés Sarmiento
26′Andrés Felipe Marín Bernal
39′Julian Angulo
45′Andrés Reyes
45′Julian AnguloLeonardo Castro
55′Juan Zapata
59′Stiven Vega
60′Juan ZapataJames Rodríguez
67′Daniel Felipe Ruiz RiveraDavid Silva
67′Marlos MorenoKevin Parra
70′Leonardo Castro
82′Elías Lautaro Cabrera
85′Andrés Sarmiento
88′Rodrigo UreñaSebastián Viveros del Castillo

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Diego Ulloa Angulo

Atletico Nacional 52%
Draw 26%
Millonarios 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 4
3 Shots on target 3
59 Possession % 41
3 Corners 2
16 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2
323 Accurate passes 190

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico NacionalDrawMillonarios
Model50.3%25.9%23.8%
Market52.8%25.7%21.5%
Final52.2%25.7%22.1%
Edge-2.5%+0.3%+2.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Nacio ↓ / Millonarios → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 12% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Atletico Nacional and Millonarios expected goals

Atletico Nacional 1.74
Millonarios 1.13

Total expected goals: 2.87

Atletico Nacional and Millonarios attack and defence ratings

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Millonarios

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios: result vs prediction

Atletico Nacional 1 – 1 Millonarios

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 52.2% 1.92 -2.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.7% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.0% 1.75 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.9% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.7% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Nacional52.2%
Draw25.7%
Millonarios22.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%
Both teams to scoreYes57.0%
No43.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.9%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)47.8%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss49.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
2-19.7%
1-08.7%

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios stats

Atletico Nacional and Millonarios recent form

newest first
Atletico Nacional LWWWWW
Millonarios WWDDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional and Millonarios going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 24 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Millonarios record

  • They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Atletico Nacional wins 3Draws 5Millonarios wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-18MillonariosAtletico NacionalPrimera A3-0
2026-03-05Atletico NacionalMillonariosCONMEBOL Sudamericana1-3
2025-09-28Atletico NacionalMillonariosPrimera A2-0
2025-06-17Atletico NacionalMillonariosPrimera A0-1
2025-06-06MillonariosAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-0
2025-04-13MillonariosAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-0
2024-12-03Atletico NacionalMillonariosPrimera A1-1
2024-11-30MillonariosAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-1
2024-07-25MillonariosAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2024-02-11Atletico NacionalMillonariosPrimera A0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 25.7%, away 21.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.77 3.54 4.30
Bet365 1.75 3.60 4.50
BetVictor 1.75 3.60 4.20
Betano 1.83 3.80 4.65
Betfair 1.75 3.70 4.20
Marathonbet 1.75 3.54 4.30
Pinnacle 1.81 3.70 4.29
SBO 1.71 3.29 3.86
William Hill 1.80 3.40 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▲ +0.05
X 3.60 ▼ -0.02
2 4.29 ▼ -0.31

6 snapshots recorded, from .