Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 11
Llaneros
vs
Atletico Nacional
2 – 0 Full time
| 15′ | Yorleys Mena | ||
| 24′ | Howell Mena | ||
| 32′ | Jhon Vasquez | ||
| 34′ | Frank Castaneda | ||
| 38′ | Juan Castilla | ||
| 45′ | Neider Ospina | ||
| 45′ | Juan ZapataJorman Campuzano | ||
| 45′ | Xavi Eshayth Rios BlanquicetElías Lautaro Cabrera | ||
| 45′ | Jhon VasquezJoel Jesús Contreras Torres | ||
| 45′ | Neider OspinaKelvin Osorio | ||
| 45′ | Juan RengifoJames Rodríguez | ||
| 58′ | Chicho ArangoIan Carlo Poveda | ||
| 59′ | Yorleys MenaCarlos Cortés | ||
| 71′ | Frank Castaneda | ||
| 72′ | Milton CascoYeicar Perlaza | ||
| 75′ | Frank CastanedaDaniel Mantilla | ||
| 83′ | Luis MirandaJuan Ramirez | ||
| 85′ | Yeicar Perlaza | ||
| 90′ | Jorman Campuzano |
Llaneros
21%
Draw
26%
Atletico Nacional
53%
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 21 | Possession % | 79 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 76 | Accurate passes | 480 |
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional
| Probability | Llaneros | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.4% | 23.9% | 56.8% |
| Market | 21.9% | 26.5% | 51.6% |
| Final | 21.2% | 25.9% | 52.9% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -2.7% | +5.2% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Nacional below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Llaneros and Atletico Nacional expected goals
Llaneros
1.06
Atletico Nacional
1.95
Total expected goals: 3.01
Llaneros and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings
Llaneros
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.18 +18%
Atletico Nacional
Attack
1.66 +66%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional: result vs prediction
Llaneros 2 – 0 Atletico Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Pereira — team news & stats
- Millonarios v Chico — match page
- Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe — team news & stats
- Deportivo Cali vs Cucuta
- Deportivo Pasto v Once Caldas — match page
- Fortaleza FC vs Junior — team news & stats
- Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota
- Deportes Tolima v America de Cali — match page
Before and after this match
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 52.9% | 1.89 | +5.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 21.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Atletico Nacional | 52.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional stats
Llaneros and Atletico Nacional recent form
| Llaneros |
LLLLWD |
| Atletico Nacional |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Llaneros and Atletico Nacional going into this match
Llaneros record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 24 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
0Llaneros wins
0Draws
3Atletico Nacional wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Atletico Nacional | Llaneros | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Llaneros | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 0-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | Atletico Nacional | Llaneros | Primera A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 26.5%, away 51.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.26 | 3.48 | 1.80 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.50 | 3.70 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 3.48 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | 4.44 | 3.51 | 1.83 |
| SBO | 3.91 | 3.26 | 1.70 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.25 | 1.83 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.25 ▼ -0.25
X
3.50 ▲ +0.08
2
1.80 ▲ +0.04
12 snapshots recorded, from .