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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe

1 – 4 Full time

22′Edgar PardoJosy Pérez
29′Alexis Zapata
32′Nahuel Bustos
45′Daniel TorresJhojan Torres
45′Emanuel OliveraVictor Moreno
45′Wiston FernándezEver Meza
47′Cristian Andrés Vergara Rivas
49′Iván Scarpeta
52′Ever Meza
52′Pablo Eduardo Repetto Aquino
52′Kilian Toscano
55′Juan Viveros
55′Deinner Quiñones
63′Jesús MuñozCharly Villegas González
71′Franco FagúndezMaximiliano Lovera
75′Nahuel Bustos
78′Alexis ZapataJader Obrian
79′Israel AlbaJeison Andrés Osorio Cabrales
79′Josy PérezHowenn Rada
84′Luis PalaciosHugo Rodallega
90′Hugo Rodallega

Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, ValleduparReferee: Javier Alonso Villa Zapata

Alianza Valledupar 32%
Draw 30%
Santa Fe 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 7
51 Possession % 49
6 Corners 6
4 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
350 Accurate passes 357

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlianza ValleduparDrawSanta Fe
Model28.0%31.9%40.0%
Market33.4%29.9%36.7%
Final32.0%30.4%37.5%
Edge-5.4%+2.0%+3.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Santa Fe

  • The market prices Santa Fe below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alianza Valled ↓ / Santa Fe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 13% 8% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

Alianza Valledupar and Santa Fe expected goals

Alianza Valledupar 0.96
Santa Fe 1.19

Total expected goals: 2.15

Alianza Valledupar and Santa Fe attack and defence ratings

Alianza Valledupar

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Santa Fe

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe: result vs prediction

Alianza Valledupar 1 – 4 Santa Fe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Santa Fe 37.5% 2.66 +3.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.7% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score No 55.8% 1.79 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.0% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alianza Valledupar32.0%
Draw30.4%
Santa Fe37.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.3%
Under 2.563.7%
Both teams to scoreYes44.2%
No55.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.5%
12 (either side)69.6%
X2 (draw or away)68.0%
Handicap -1Santa Fe win17.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss60.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-013.0%
0-112.6%

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe stats

Alianza Valledupar and Santa Fe recent form

newest first
Alianza Valledupar WWLLLD
Santa Fe LWDDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alianza Valledupar and Santa Fe going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alianza Valledupar record

  • They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Santa Fe record

  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Alianza Valledupar wins 2Draws 4Santa Fe wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15Santa FeAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-1
2025-11-14Santa FeAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-0
2025-09-10Santa FeAlianza ValleduparCopa Colombia4-1
2025-08-28Alianza ValleduparSanta FeCopa Colombia1-1
2025-05-25Alianza ValleduparSanta FePrimera A6-1
2024-09-26Santa FeAlianza ValleduparPrimera A2-0
2024-03-04Alianza ValleduparSanta FePrimera A0-1
2023-09-17Santa FeAlianza ValleduparPrimera A0-1
2023-04-10Alianza ValleduparSanta FePrimera A3-1
2022-10-11Alianza ValleduparSanta FePrimera A4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 29.9%, away 36.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.76 3.08 2.51
Bet365 2.88 3.00 2.60
BetVictor 2.75 3.10 2.50
Betano 2.82 3.00 2.60
Betfair 2.80 3.10 2.45
Marathonbet 2.76 3.08 2.51
Pinnacle 2.85 3.23 2.59
SBO 2.58 2.82 2.32
William Hill 2.75 3.00 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.76 ▲ +0.25
X 3.08 ▲ +0.06
2 2.51 ▼ -0.29

10 snapshots recorded, from .