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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 12

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar

1 – 2 Full time

15′Andrés Rentería
31′Johan Beltrán
36′Luis Jimenez
39′Jair Castillo
47′Santiago Cubides
49′Kevin Moreno
56′Santiago CubidesDarwin Lopez
63′Johar MejiaDuvan Rodriguez
64′Johan BeltránCristian Alvarez
64′Kevin MorenoSebastián Quiñones
65′Ever MezaWiston Fernández
72′J. Lasso
80′Jesús MuñozLeyner Palacios
80′Deinner QuiñonesCharly Villegas González
80′Jerson MalagonWilfrido De la Rosa
80′Luis JimenezAndres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian
81′Sebastián Quiñones
90′Cristian Andrés Vergara RivasJosy Pérez
90′Andres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian

Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, MonteriaReferee: Wilmar Roldan

Jaguares 46%
Draw 28%
Alianza Valledupar 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 8
57 Possession % 43
7 Corners 6
6 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0
6 Saves 5
404 Accurate passes 298

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJaguaresDrawAlianza Valledupar
Model62.2%20.8%17.0%
Market41.0%30.5%28.5%
Final46.3%28.1%25.6%
Edge+21.2%-9.7%-11.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Jaguares

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.15.
  • The market prices Jaguares below the model: +21.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jaguares ↓ / Alianza Valled → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 9% 5% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar expected goals

Jaguares 2.29
Alianza Valledupar 1.15

Total expected goals: 3.43

Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar attack and defence ratings

Jaguares

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Alianza Valledupar

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.48 +48%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar: result vs prediction

Jaguares 1 – 2 Alianza Valledupar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Jaguares 46.3% 2.16 +21.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.7% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.1% 1.61 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Jaguares win 40.7% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jaguares46.3%
Draw28.1%
Alianza Valledupar25.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
Both teams to scoreYes62.1%
No37.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.4%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)53.7%
Handicap -1Jaguares win40.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss37.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.7%
1-19.3%
2-08.4%

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar stats

Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar recent form

newest first
Jaguares LDDDWD
Alianza Valledupar LWWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar going into this match

league record before kick-off

Jaguares record

  • They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Alianza Valledupar record

  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Jaguares wins 4Draws 4Alianza Valledupar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-19Alianza ValleduparJaguaresPrimera A1-0
2024-11-10JaguaresAlianza ValleduparPrimera A0-0
2024-04-21Alianza ValleduparJaguaresPrimera A2-1
2023-09-22JaguaresAlianza ValleduparPrimera A0-0
2023-04-15Alianza ValleduparJaguaresPrimera A3-0
2022-07-30JaguaresAlianza ValleduparPrimera A2-1
2022-04-06JaguaresAlianza ValleduparCopa Colombia2-1
2022-03-31Alianza ValleduparJaguaresCopa Colombia1-1
2022-02-07Alianza ValleduparJaguaresPrimera A2-0
2021-10-04Alianza ValleduparJaguaresPrimera A1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 30.5%, away 28.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.26 3.04 3.25
Bet365 2.30 3.00 3.40
BetVictor 2.25 3.13 3.13
Betano 2.27 3.05 3.30
Betfair 2.20 3.25 3.25
Marathonbet 2.24 3.04 3.22
Pinnacle 2.32 3.12 3.37
SBO 2.08 2.89 2.90
William Hill 2.30 2.90 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.26 ▼ -0.04
X 3.04 ▲ +0.03
2 3.25 ▲ +0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .