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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 11

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares

2 – 1 Full time

17′Andrés Rentería
25′Andrés Rentería
32′Agustín Martegani
34′Esneyder Mena
37′Jonathan Lovera
39′Rafael Bustamante
40′Juan QuinteroYony González
63′Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
66′Darwin LopezJohar Mejia
70′John Montano
74′Keiner David Klinger VasquezHalam Stiven Loboa Diaz
75′Santiago CubidesDuvan Rodriguez
75′Johan BeltránCristian Alvarez
75′Juan Pablo ArcilaEdwin martinez
80′John MontanoNivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez
80′Agustín MarteganiDiego Moreno
80′Jeison MedinaCarlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
84′Andrés RenteríaDiego Zuluaga
84′Jonathan Lovera

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Andres Rojas

Independiente Medellin 70%
Draw 19%
Jaguares 11%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 1
54 Possession % 46
7 Corners 3
9 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 2
0 Saves 7
358 Accurate passes 288

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndependiente MedellinDrawJaguares
Model62.8%20.4%16.7%
Market71.7%18.5%9.7%
Final69.5%19.0%11.5%
Edge-8.9%+1.9%+7.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Independiente Medellin

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Independiente ↓ / Jaguares → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 7% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Independiente Medellin and Jaguares expected goals

Independiente Medellin 2.34
Jaguares 1.16

Total expected goals: 3.50

Independiente Medellin and Jaguares attack and defence ratings

Independiente Medellin

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Jaguares

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares: result vs prediction

Independiente Medellin 2 – 1 Jaguares

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 11 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Independiente Medellin 69.5% 1.44 -8.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.8% 1.59 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.5% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Independiente Medellin win 41.5% 2.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Independiente Medellin69.5%
Draw19.0%
Jaguares11.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes62.8%
No37.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.5%
12 (either side)81.0%
X2 (draw or away)30.5%
Handicap -1Independiente Medellin win41.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss37.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
1-19.0%
2-08.3%

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares stats

Independiente Medellin and Jaguares recent form

newest first
Independiente Medellin DLWWLW
Jaguares DDDWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Independiente Medellin and Jaguares going into this match

league record before kick-off

Independiente Medellin record

  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Jaguares record

  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Independiente Medellin wins 4Draws 1Jaguares wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15JaguaresIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-2
2025-08-07JaguaresIndependiente MedellinCopa Colombia0-1
2025-07-31Independiente MedellinJaguaresCopa Colombia1-1
2024-10-29Independiente MedellinJaguaresPrimera A4-1
2024-04-07JaguaresIndependiente MedellinPrimera A2-2
2023-09-02JaguaresIndependiente MedellinPrimera A1-1
2023-03-20Independiente MedellinJaguaresPrimera A1-0
2022-10-23Independiente MedellinJaguaresPrimera A0-0
2022-05-08JaguaresIndependiente MedellinPrimera A3-0
2021-09-11JaguaresIndependiente MedellinPrimera A0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 71.7%, draw 18.5%, away 9.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.29 5.00 9.55
Bet365 1.30 5.25 10.00
BetVictor 1.29 5.00 9.50
Betano 1.34 5.60 10.00
Betfair 1.29 5.00 10.50
Marathonbet 1.28 5.00 9.50
Pinnacle 1.32 5.32 9.48
SBO 1.27 4.49 6.57
William Hill 1.30 4.80 9.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.29 ▼ -0.04
X 5.00 ▲ +0.20
2 9.50 ▲ +1.00

16 snapshots recorded, from .