Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 10
Jaguares
vs
Fortaleza FC
2 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | Jhonier Blanco | ||
| 21′ | A. Mosquera | ||
| 37′ | Jhonier BlancoFranco Pulicastro | ||
| 38′ | Juan Esteban Franco | ||
| 45′ | Wilfrido De la RosaDarwin Lopez | ||
| 45′ | Juan Esteban FrancoAndres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian | ||
| 45′ | Julio SinisterraJhon Solis | ||
| 48′ | Santiago Vivas Vélez | ||
| 50′ | Carlos Henao | ||
| 54′ | Mariano Vázquez | ||
| 57′ | Johar MejiaSantiago Cubides | ||
| 57′ | Cristian AlvarezJohan Beltrán | ||
| 65′ | Mariano VázquezJordan Garcia | ||
| 75′ | Jonathan Lovera | ||
| 79′ | Andrés Rentería | ||
| 80′ | Sebastian NavarroJhoiner Salas | ||
| 80′ | Andres Felipe Alfonso CiprianDuvan Rodriguez | ||
| 85′ | Darwin Lopez |
Jaguares
41%
Draw
30%
Fortaleza FC
29%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 365 | Accurate passes | 206 |
Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC
| Probability | Jaguares | Draw | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.7% | 27.3% | 28.0% |
| Market | 39.1% | 31.0% | 29.9% |
| Final | 40.5% | 30.1% | 29.4% |
| Edge | +5.6% | -3.7% | -1.9% |
Why Jaguares
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.20.
- The market prices Jaguares below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
52%
No goals
7%
Jaguares and Fortaleza FC expected goals
Jaguares
1.57
Fortaleza FC
1.20
Total expected goals: 2.77
Jaguares and Fortaleza FC attack and defence ratings
Jaguares
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.29 +29%
Fortaleza FC
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
1.06 +6%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC: result vs prediction
Jaguares 2 – 2 Fortaleza FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
- Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima
- Internacional de Bogota vs Llaneros
- Chico v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Alianza Valledupar v Junior — match page
- Deportivo Pereira vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Águilas Doradas — match page
- Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats
- Cucuta vs Millonarios
Before and after this match
Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 40.5% | 2.47 | +5.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 40.5% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Fortaleza FC | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jaguares win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC stats
Jaguares and Fortaleza FC recent form
| Jaguares |
DDWDLL |
| Fortaleza FC |
DLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jaguares and Fortaleza FC going into this match
Jaguares record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Fortaleza FC record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
2Jaguares wins
0Draws
3Fortaleza FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Fortaleza FC | Jaguares | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-07 | Fortaleza FC | Jaguares | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-24 | Jaguares | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2016-07-03 | Jaguares | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2016-01-30 | Fortaleza FC | Jaguares | Primera A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 31.0%, away 29.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 2.98 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 2.98 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.03 | 3.27 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 2.90 | 3.00 |