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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 10

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas

2 – 0 Full time

45′Ricardo MarquezAnthony Vásquez
45′Juan Esteban·Avalo TrejosMatías Ramírez
57′Juan RengifoEdwin Cardona
58′Simón Alejandro Rojas MerchanElías Lautaro Cabrera
58′Marlos MorenoIan Carlo Poveda
66′Nicolás Lara Vásquez
68′Edwin Cardona
69′Nicolás Lara VásquezJunior Noguera
71′William Tesillo
78′Juan ZapataXavi Eshayth Rios Blanquicet
79′Eduar Arley Arízalas TenorioFabián Suárez
80′Alfredo MorelosChicho Arango
83′Ian Carlo Poveda
86′Jhon MeléndezLucho Vásquez Diaz
90′Milton Casco

Estadio Atanasio Girardot, MedellinReferee: Jonnathan Ortiz

Atletico Nacional 70%
Draw 20%
Águilas Doradas 11%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
61 Possession % 39
8 Corners 3
13 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 5
2 Saves 4
350 Accurate passes 205

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico NacionalDrawÁguilas Doradas
Model75.1%15.5%9.3%
Market68.1%20.9%11.1%
Final69.8%19.5%10.6%
Edge+7.1%-5.3%-1.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Nacional

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Nacional below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Nacio ↓ / Águilas Dorada → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 7% 2 9% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 12% 11%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Atletico Nacional and Águilas Doradas expected goals

Atletico Nacional 2.78
Águilas Doradas 0.94

Total expected goals: 3.71

Atletico Nacional and Águilas Doradas attack and defence ratings

Atletico Nacional

Attack 1.63 +63%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Águilas Doradas

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas: result vs prediction

Atletico Nacional 2 – 0 Águilas Doradas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Nacional 69.8% 1.43 +7.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.7% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.6% 1.73 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.4% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Atletico Nacional win 55.3% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Nacional69.8%
Draw19.5%
Águilas Doradas10.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%
Both teams to scoreYes57.6%
No42.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.4%
12 (either side)80.5%
X2 (draw or away)30.2%
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win55.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss25.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.4%
2-18.8%
3-08.7%

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas stats

Atletico Nacional and Águilas Doradas recent form

newest first
Atletico Nacional WWWLWW
Águilas Doradas DDDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional and Águilas Doradas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Nacional record

  • They have won 22 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Águilas Doradas record

  • They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Atletico Nacional wins 2Draws 2Águilas Doradas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-07Águilas DoradasAtletico NacionalPrimera A1-2
2025-11-08Atletico NacionalÁguilas DoradasPrimera A2-1
2025-05-18Águilas DoradasAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-1
2024-08-06Atletico NacionalÁguilas DoradasPrimera A1-1
2024-06-19Atletico NacionalÁguilas DoradasFriendlies Clubs2-2
2024-02-04Águilas DoradasAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-3
2023-10-05Atletico NacionalÁguilas DoradasCopa Colombia2-1
2023-09-28Águilas DoradasAtletico NacionalCopa Colombia0-3
2023-08-31Águilas DoradasAtletico NacionalPrimera A2-0
2023-06-04Águilas DoradasAtletico NacionalPrimera A0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Nacional vs Águilas Doradas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.1%, draw 21.0%, away 11.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.41 4.30 7.70
1xBet 1.39 4.10 9.05
888Sport 1.36 4.40 7.50
Bet365 1.38 4.50 8.00
BetVictor 1.36 4.60 8.00
Betano 1.40 4.70 10.00
Betfair 1.33 4.50 8.50
Marathonbet 1.38 4.10 9.00
Pinnacle 1.41 4.14 9.99
SBO 1.34 3.96 6.18
Unibet 1.30 5.10 9.50
William Hill 1.33 4.60 8.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.38 —
X 4.50 —
2 8.50 —

12 snapshots recorded, from .