Alianza Valledupar
vs
Atletico Nacional
1 – 5 Full time
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional
| Probability | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.8% | 30.5% | 45.7% |
| Market | 27.0% | 28.7% | 44.3% |
| Final | 26.2% | 29.2% | 44.7% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +1.8% | +1.3% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Valledupar and Atletico Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Alianza Valledupar and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings
Alianza Valledupar
Atletico Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional: result vs prediction
Alianza Valledupar 1 – 5 Atletico Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 8 fixtures
- Jaguares vs America de Cali
- Junior v Santa Fe — match page
- Águilas Doradas vs Chico
- Independiente Medellin v Llaneros — match page
- Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Deportivo Cali vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pasto v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta
Before and after this match
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 44.7% | 2.24 | +1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 26.2% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Atletico Nacional | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional stats
Alianza Valledupar and Atletico Nacional recent form
| Alianza Valledupar |
LDLLDD |
| Atletico Nacional |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Valledupar and Atletico Nacional going into this match
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 22 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Atletico Nacional | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Atletico Nacional | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Alianza Valledupar | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.0%, draw 28.7%, away 44.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.45 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| 1xBet | 3.46 | 3.24 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.09 |
| Marathonbet | 3.45 | 3.24 | 2.08 |
| Unibet | 3.55 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .