Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 7
Atletico Nacional
vs
Deportivo Cali
2 – 1 Full time
Atletico Nacional
57%
Draw
26%
Deportivo Cali
17%
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali
| Probability | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 29.7% | 19.1% |
| Market | 59.5% | 24.6% | 15.9% |
| Final | 57.4% | 25.8% | 16.7% |
| Edge | -8.3% | +5.1% | +3.2% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
37%
No goals
12%
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Cali expected goals
Atletico Nacional
1.42
Deportivo Cali
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.19
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Cali attack and defence ratings
Atletico Nacional
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Deportivo Cali
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali: result vs prediction
Atletico Nacional 2 – 1 Deportivo Cali
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
- Cucuta v Alianza Valledupar — match page
- Chico vs Fortaleza FC
- America de Cali v Junior — match page
- Llaneros vs Millonarios
- Internacional de Bogota v Deportivo Pasto — match page
- Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin
- Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima — team news & stats
- Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Before and after this match
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 57.4% | 1.74 | -8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 57.4% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Deportivo Cali | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.0% |
| No | 58.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali stats
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Cali recent form
| Atletico Nacional |
WLWWLW |
| Deportivo Cali |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Cali going into this match
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 22 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Cali record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
2Atletico Nacional wins
3Draws
3Deportivo Cali wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Deportivo Cali | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Cali | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Deportivo Cali | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-10 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Cali | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-17 | Deportivo Cali | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 3-2 |
| 2023-08-06 | Deportivo Cali | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-13 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Cali | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-18 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Cali | Primera A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 24.6%, away 15.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.56 | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 3.78 | 5.81 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.80 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.05 | 6.30 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 3.85 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 3.78 | 5.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 3.87 | 6.04 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.50 | 5.13 |
| Unibet | 1.52 | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.57 ▼ -0.08
X
3.80 ▲ +0.05
2
5.86 ▲ +0.61
11 snapshots recorded, from .