Fortaleza FC
vs
Atletico Nacional
1 – 2 Full time
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional
| Probability | Fortaleza FC | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.3% | 30.5% | 39.2% |
| Market | 19.0% | 27.0% | 53.9% |
| Final | 21.9% | 27.9% | 50.2% |
| Edge | +11.3% | +3.5% | -14.8% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortaleza FC and Atletico Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Fortaleza FC and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional: result vs prediction
Fortaleza FC 1 – 2 Atletico Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
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- Deportes Tolima vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Santa Fe vs America de Cali
- Independiente Medellin v Cucuta — match page
- Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros
- Deportivo Cali v Internacional de Bogota — match page
Before and after this match
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 50.2% | 1.99 | -14.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza FC | 21.9% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Atletico Nacional | 50.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.7% |
| No | 51.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional stats
Fortaleza FC and Atletico Nacional recent form
| Fortaleza FC |
WLDDWL |
| Atletico Nacional |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza FC and Atletico Nacional going into this match
Fortaleza FC record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 22 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Atletico Nacional | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Atletico Nacional | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-05 | Fortaleza FC | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.1%, draw 27.1%, away 53.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.75 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 4.88 | 3.44 | 1.73 |
| 888Sport | 3.90 | 3.25 | 1.91 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 3.35 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.45 | 1.78 |
| Marathonbet | 4.90 | 3.44 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 5.17 | 3.58 | 1.73 |
| SBO | 3.81 | 3.10 | 1.78 |
| Unibet | 5.10 | 3.60 | 1.68 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .