Independiente Medellin
vs
Cucuta
0 – 1 Full time
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta
| Probability | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.3% | 17.0% | 8.7% |
| Market | 66.0% | 21.6% | 12.4% |
| Final | 68.1% | 20.4% | 11.5% |
| Edge | +8.2% | -4.6% | -3.6% |
Why Independiente Medellin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Independiente Medellin below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente Medellin and Cucuta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Independiente Medellin and Cucuta attack and defence ratings
Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta: result vs prediction
Independiente Medellin 0 – 1 Cucuta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
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- Santa Fe vs America de Cali
- Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros
- Deportivo Cali v Internacional de Bogota — match page
Before and after this match
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 68.1% | 1.47 | +8.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 68.1% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Cucuta | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win | 52.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 25.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.9% |
| 3-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta stats
Independiente Medellin and Cucuta recent form
| Independiente Medellin |
WWLWDL |
| Cucuta |
DLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente Medellin and Cucuta going into this match
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta record
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Cucuta | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.9%, draw 21.7%, away 12.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.44 | 4.30 | 7.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.30 | 7.60 |
| 888Sport | 1.44 | 3.90 | 7.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.42 | 4.30 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.30 | 7.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 4.40 | 8.04 |
| SBO | 1.38 | 3.82 | 6.28 |
| Superbet | 1.43 | 4.30 | 7.00 |
| Unibet | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .