Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 8
Independiente Medellin
vs
Llaneros
2 – 1 Full time
| 3′ | Yony González | ||
| 17′ | J. Medina | ||
| 21′ | J. Montano | ||
| 27′ | Joel Contreras | ||
| 28′ | D. QuinteroJ. Castilla | ||
| 44′ | F. Meza | ||
| 50′ | Kevin Mantilla | ||
| 54′ | Kelvin Osorio | ||
| 58′ | J. MedrandaJ. Escobar Salcedo | ||
| 58′ | Kelvin OsorioL. Miranda | ||
| 61′ | Luis Miranda | ||
| 63′ | L. EscorciaH. Loboa | ||
| 63′ | J. MontanoK. Klinger | ||
| 63′ | J. MedinaC. Lucumi | ||
| 64′ | Juan Pertuz | ||
| 74′ | F. CastanedaB. Chury | ||
| 74′ | J. RamirezY. Mena | ||
| 77′ | Yony GonzalezJ. Mena | ||
| 78′ | Keiner Klinger | ||
| 84′ | A. MarteganiD. Moreno | ||
| 84′ | F. FabraN. Erazo | ||
| 87′ | C. CortesN. Ospina | ||
| 90′ | Carlos Lucumi |
Independiente Medellin
58%
Draw
25%
Llaneros
16%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 1 |
| 357 | Accurate passes | 331 |
Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros
| Probability | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Llaneros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 29.5% | 19.8% |
| Market | 61.0% | 23.9% | 15.1% |
| Final | 58.4% | 25.3% | 16.3% |
| Edge | -10.3% | +5.6% | +4.7% |
Why Independiente Medellin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.80.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
66%
3+ goals
39%
No goals
12%
Independiente Medellin and Llaneros expected goals
Independiente Medellin
1.43
Llaneros
0.80
Total expected goals: 2.23
Independiente Medellin and Llaneros attack and defence ratings
Independiente Medellin
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Llaneros
Attack
0.78 -22%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros: result vs prediction
Independiente Medellin 2 – 1 Llaneros
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 8 fixtures
- Jaguares vs America de Cali
- Junior v Santa Fe — match page
- Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas vs Chico
- Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota — team news & stats
- Deportivo Cali vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pasto v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta
Before and after this match
Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 58.4% | 1.71 | -10.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 58.4% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Llaneros | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros stats
Independiente Medellin and Llaneros recent form
| Independiente Medellin |
LWWLWD |
| Llaneros |
LWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente Medellin and Llaneros going into this match
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Llaneros record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
2Independiente Medellin wins
1Draws
0Llaneros wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Llaneros | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-11 | Llaneros | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-28 | Independiente Medellin | Llaneros | Primera A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 23.9%, away 15.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.54 | 3.85 | 6.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 3.88 | 6.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 3.90 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.00 | 6.70 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 3.88 | 6.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.00 | 6.51 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.62 | 5.22 |
| Superbet | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.65 |
| Unibet | 1.46 | 4.25 | 6.75 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.53 ▼ -0.03
X
3.90 ▲ +0.06
2
6.18 ▲ +0.28
3 snapshots recorded, from .