Primera A
·
Full time
·Clausura - 5
Llaneros
vs
Deportes Tolima
1 – 2 Full time
| 18′ | N. Ospina | ||
| 23′ | H. H. Mena Posada | ||
| 43′ | J. Escobar SalcedoK. Rincon | ||
| 47′ | Luis Sánchez | ||
| 57′ | Kevin Rincón | ||
| 59′ | A. Parra OsorioJ. Hurtado | ||
| 59′ | E. LopezS. Aguayo | ||
| 65′ | S. Aguayo | ||
| 70′ | F. CastanedaJ. Ramirez | ||
| 70′ | L. MirandaJ. Contreras | ||
| 77′ | L. SanchezJ. Santiago | ||
| 85′ | N. OspinaB. Chury | ||
| 86′ | K. FlorezS. P. Barbosa Gomez | ||
| 90′ | Juan Ramirez |
Llaneros
36%
Draw
30%
Deportes Tolima
33%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 1 |
| 237 | Accurate passes | 283 |
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima
| Probability | Llaneros | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.2% | 31.8% | 27.1% |
| Market | 34.9% | 30.0% | 35.2% |
| Final | 36.4% | 30.4% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +6.3% | +1.8% | -8.1% |
Why Llaneros
- The market prices Llaneros below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
36%
No goals
13%
Llaneros and Deportes Tolima expected goals
Llaneros
1.22
Deportes Tolima
0.94
Total expected goals: 2.15
Llaneros and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings
Llaneros
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Deportes Tolima
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima: result vs prediction
Llaneros 1 – 2 Deportes Tolima
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Deportivo Cali
- Cucuta vs Águilas Doradas
- Chico vs Junior — team news & stats
- Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar — match page
- Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin
- America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe — match page
- Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares — match page
Before and after this match
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 36.4% | 2.75 | +6.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 36.4% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Deportes Tolima | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Llaneros win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.9% | |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima stats
Llaneros and Deportes Tolima recent form
| Llaneros |
LLWDWD |
| Deportes Tolima |
WLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Llaneros and Deportes Tolima going into this match
Llaneros record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
2Llaneros wins
0Draws
3Deportes Tolima wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Deportes Tolima | Llaneros | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Deportes Tolima | Llaneros | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Llaneros | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-19 | Llaneros | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-24 | Deportes Tolima | Llaneros | Primera A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 30.0%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.68 | 3.15 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.62 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.12 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 2.85 | 2.46 |
| Superbet | 2.72 | 3.05 | 2.67 |
| Unibet | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.67 ▼ -0.04
X
3.10 ▲ +0.05
2
2.64 ▲ +0.04
8 snapshots recorded, from .