Garuda Lions
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Primera A · Full time ·Clausura - 5

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar

1 – 0 Full time

46′Y. RosalesI. Alba
52′M. Barrios
62′F. PardoC. Vergara
69′M. Barrios
71′J. Viveros
72′J. ViverosY. Londono
72′M. MartinezL. Palacios
72′J. MunozD. Quinones
75′C. Vergara
76′J. A. Zapata RamirezD. Moreno
76′M. BarriosH. Guzman
77′D. Londono
81′I. Alba
88′J. NietoJ. Castano
88′J. QuinonesT. Rojas
89′P. GomezE. Torres

Estadio Palogrande, ManizalesReferee: Carlos Alberto Diaz Vargas, Colombia

Once Caldas 61%
Draw 24%
Alianza Valledupar 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

27 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 2
56 Possession % 44
8 Corners 1
7 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 2
2 Saves 7
392 Accurate passes 286

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOnce CaldasDrawAlianza Valledupar
Model52.5%28.0%19.6%
Market64.4%22.3%13.2%
Final61.4%23.7%14.8%
Edge-3.0%+1.4%+1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Once Caldas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.86.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Once Caldas ↓ / Alianza Valled → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 13% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar expected goals

Once Caldas 1.55
Alianza Valledupar 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.41

Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar attack and defence ratings

Once Caldas

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Alianza Valledupar

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar: result vs prediction

Once Caldas 1 – 0 Alianza Valledupar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 5 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Once Caldas 61.4% 1.63 -3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.7% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score No 53.4% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.2% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Once Caldas61.4%
Draw23.7%
Alianza Valledupar14.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.3%
Under 2.556.7%
Both teams to scoreYes46.6%
No53.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.2%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)38.6%
Handicap -1Once Caldas win28.1%
Push (exactly one goal)24.3%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-012.7%
2-010.8%

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar stats

Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar recent form

newest first
Once Caldas DDWWDL
Alianza Valledupar WWDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Once Caldas and Alianza Valledupar going into this match

league record before kick-off

Once Caldas record

  • They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 37 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 37 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Valledupar record

  • They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Once Caldas wins 3Draws 5Alianza Valledupar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-10Once CaldasAlianza ValleduparCopa Colombia1-0
2026-02-08Alianza ValleduparOnce CaldasPrimera A1-1
2025-08-15Alianza ValleduparOnce CaldasPrimera A0-0
2025-03-02Once CaldasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-2
2024-10-06Alianza ValleduparOnce CaldasPrimera A1-0
2024-03-25Once CaldasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-0
2023-09-26Alianza ValleduparOnce CaldasPrimera A2-1
2023-04-18Once CaldasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-2
2022-10-24Once CaldasAlianza ValleduparPrimera A1-1
2022-05-09Alianza ValleduparOnce CaldasPrimera A2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.4%, draw 22.3%, away 13.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.44 4.15 6.94
Bet365 1.45 4.00 7.50
BetVictor 1.40 4.20 7.50
Betano 1.50 4.50 7.40
Dafabet 1.45 4.30 6.80
Marathonbet 1.43 4.15 6.85
Pinnacle 1.46 4.29 7.46
SBO 1.40 3.77 5.90
William Hill 1.44 3.90 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 —
X 4.15 ▼ -0.01
2 7.00 ▲ +0.03

5 snapshots recorded, from .