Independiente Medellin
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Independiente Medellin
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar
| Probability | Independiente Medellin | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.1% | 26.1% | 23.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.1% | 26.1% | 23.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Independiente Medellin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.12.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar match preview
Independiente Medellin faces Alianza Valledupar in their upcoming Primera A match, with our model assigning a 50% probability of a home victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 24% likelihood of an away win. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Independiente Medellin, occurring with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Independiente Medellin stand at 1.72, while Alianza Valledupar is projected to score 1.12.
In terms of recent form, Independiente Medellin has recorded two losses, one win, one draw, and two more losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Alianza Valledupar has achieved two wins, one draw, and three losses during the same period. Historically, in their last three encounters, Independiente Medellin has secured one win and two draws against Alianza Valledupar, who has yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar attack and defence ratings
Independiente Medellin
Alianza Valledupar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente Medellin | 50.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente Medellin win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar stats
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar recent form
| Independiente Medellin |
LLWLDL |
| Alianza Valledupar |
WWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Valledupar season so far
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Independiente Medellin | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-27 | Alianza Valledupar | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.