Alianza Valledupar
vs
Llaneros
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza Valledupar
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alianza Valledupar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
| Probability | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Llaneros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 28.2% | 27.4% |
| Market | 43.3% | 29.3% | 27.3% |
| Final | 43.6% | 29.0% | 27.4% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.3% | +0.0% |
Why Alianza Valledupar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.13.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 43.6% × 2.18 − 1).
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros match preview
Alianza Valledupar hosts Llaneros in their upcoming Primera A clash, with the model indicating a 44% probability of a home victory, while a draw stands at 28% and an away win for Llaneros at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals are set at 1.50 for Alianza Valledupar and 1.13 for Llaneros, suggesting a tighter contest.
In terms of recent form, Alianza Valledupar has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Llaneros has managed two wins and four losses. The head-to-head record favors Alianza Valledupar, who has won twice and drawn once in their last three encounters against Llaneros, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros attack and defence ratings
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- Junior vs Cucuta
Before and after this match
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 43.6% | 2.29 | +0.3% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 43.6% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Llaneros | 27.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Valledupar win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros stats
Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros recent form
| Alianza Valledupar |
LLWWDL |
| Llaneros |
WLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza Valledupar and Llaneros season so far
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Llaneros record
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Llaneros | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Alianza Valledupar | Llaneros | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-11 | Llaneros | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.3%, draw 29.3%, away 27.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.25 | 3.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.11 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.14 | 3.53 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 2.94 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .