Atletico Nacional
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Nacional
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Nacional is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
| Probability | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.6% | 18.7% | 7.8% |
| Market | 79.5% | 13.3% | 7.2% |
| Final | 78.0% | 14.7% | 7.3% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +1.3% | +0.2% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 78.0% × 1.20 − 1).
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira match preview
Atletico Nacional is favored to win against Deportivo Pereira, with a probability of 78%. The expected goals for Atletico Nacional stand at 2.21, while Deportivo Pereira is projected to score only 0.60. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, occurring with a 15% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Nacional has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Deportivo Pereira, on the other hand, has shown slightly better consistency with two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same period. Historically, in their last three encounters, Deportivo Pereira has had the upper hand with two wins compared to Atletico Nacional's one.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira attack and defence ratings
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pereira
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Chico v Internacional de Bogota — match page
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page
Before and after this match
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 78.0% | 1.28 | -1.5% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 78.0% |
| Draw | 14.7% | |
| Deportivo Pereira | 7.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 50.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 26.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 3-0 | 10.8% |
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira stats
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira recent form
| Atletico Nacional |
DWWWLW |
| Deportivo Pereira |
LWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira season so far
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 29 of their 42 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 42 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 42 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pereira record
- They have won 4 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Deportivo Pereira | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Deportivo Pereira | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-10 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-08 | Deportivo Pereira | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-18 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-02 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pereira | Copa Colombia | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-20 | Deportivo Pereira | Atletico Nacional | Copa Colombia | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-03 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-18 | Deportivo Pereira | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 0-2 |
| 2023-02-17 | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pereira | Superliga | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.5%, draw 13.3%, away 7.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 6.95 | 14.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.18 | 6.90 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.17 | 7.20 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 6.95 | 14.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.17 | 7.33 | 12.85 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 6.09 | 9.64 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .