Jaguares
vs
Bucaramanga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bucaramanga
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bucaramanga is the favourite, not a value bet.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jaguares vs Bucaramanga
| Probability | Jaguares | Draw | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.4% | 27.3% | 46.3% |
| Market | 25.9% | 26.3% | 47.9% |
| Final | 26.0% | 26.5% | 47.5% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +0.3% | -0.4% |
Why Bucaramanga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.15.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (our 47.5% × 2.00 − 1).
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga match preview
In the upcoming Primera A match, Jaguares will face Bucaramanga with a kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Bucaramanga holds a 45% probability of winning, while Jaguares has a 28% chance, and a draw stands at 27%. The expected goals for Jaguares is 1.24 compared to Bucaramanga's 1.63, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form indicates that Jaguares has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Bucaramanga has shown more resilience with three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. Additionally, there is a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jaguares and Bucaramanga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Jaguares and Bucaramanga attack and defence ratings
Jaguares
Bucaramanga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page
- Junior vs Cucuta
Before and after this match
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 47.5% | 2.11 | -0.4% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 26.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Bucaramanga | 47.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga stats
Jaguares and Bucaramanga recent form
| Jaguares |
LLWLLW |
| Bucaramanga |
DWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jaguares and Bucaramanga season so far
Jaguares record
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Bucaramanga record
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bucaramanga | Jaguares | Primera A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jaguares vs Bucaramanga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.9%, draw 26.3%, away 47.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.61 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.55 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.56 | 3.88 | 1.91 |
| SBO | 3.05 | 3.10 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .