Fortaleza FC
vs
Independiente Medellin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fortaleza FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
| Probability | Fortaleza FC | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 27.4% | 30.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.0% | 27.4% | 30.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin match preview
Fortaleza FC faces Independiente Medellin in a Primera A clash, with our model assigning a 42% probability of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 31% likelihood of an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Fortaleza FC, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score. Expected goals are 1.53 for Fortaleza FC and 1.27 for Independiente Medellin.
Recent form shows Fortaleza FC struggling with two losses and three draws in their last five matches, while Independiente Medellin has a mixed record with two wins and three losses. In their last ten encounters, Fortaleza FC has secured one win, while Independiente Medellin has five victories and four matches ended in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza FC | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza FC | 42.0% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Independiente Medellin | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza FC win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 58.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin stats
Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin recent form
| Fortaleza FC |
LLDLDD |
| Independiente Medellin |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin season so far
Fortaleza FC record
- They have won 6 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 15 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Independiente Medellin | Fortaleza FC | Copa Colombia | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Independiente Medellin | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Independiente Medellin | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Independiente Medellin | Fortaleza FC | Copa Colombia | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-27 | Fortaleza FC | Independiente Medellin | Copa Colombia | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | Fortaleza FC | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-27 | Fortaleza FC | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-17 | Independiente Medellin | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2016-10-15 | Fortaleza FC | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2016-05-02 | Independiente Medellin | Fortaleza FC | Primera A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.