Águilas Doradas
vs
Independiente Medellin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Águilas Doradas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin
| Probability | Águilas Doradas | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.3% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.3% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Águilas Doradas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin match preview
Águilas Doradas are favored in their upcoming match against Independiente Medellin, with a 57% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Águilas Doradas have shown solid recent form, recording two wins, one loss, and two draws in their last five matches. In contrast, Independiente Medellin has struggled, with two wins and three losses in their last five games.
In terms of expected goals, Águilas Doradas are projected to score 1.81, while Independiente Medellin is expected to net 0.91. Both teams have a 51% chance of scoring, and there is also a 51% probability of the match having over 2.5 goals. Historically, Águilas Doradas have performed well against Independiente Medellin, winning two of their last three encounters, with one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin attack and defence ratings
Águilas Doradas
Independiente Medellin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
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- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page
- Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
- Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas — match page
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
- Llaneros v Chico — match page
Before and after this match
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águilas Doradas | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águilas Doradas | 57.3% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Independiente Medellin | 17.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águilas Doradas win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin stats
Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin recent form
| Águilas Doradas |
WWLWDD |
| Independiente Medellin |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin season so far
Águilas Doradas record
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin record
- They have won 15 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Independiente Medellin | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-08 | Águilas Doradas | Independiente Medellin | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Independiente Medellin | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.