Atletico Nacional
vs
Once Caldas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Nacional
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.64.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
| Probability | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.6% | 26.9% | 13.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.6% | 26.9% | 13.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas match preview
Atletico Nacional is set to face Once Caldas in the Primera A, with a kickoff scheduled for November 12, 2026. According to our model, Atletico Nacional holds a 60% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and Once Caldas at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.60 for Atletico Nacional compared to 0.64 for Once Caldas.
Recent form shows Atletico Nacional with a mixed record of D-W-W-W-L-W, while Once Caldas has been more consistent with W-D-D-W-W-D. In their last five encounters, Atletico Nacional has secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and Once Caldas has achieved 1 win. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas attack and defence ratings
Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page
- Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
- Llaneros v Chico — match page
Before and after this match
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 59.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Once Caldas | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 40.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.0% |
| 2-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-1 | 12.0% |
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas stats
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas recent form
| Atletico Nacional |
DWWWLW |
| Once Caldas |
WDDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas season so far
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 29 of their 42 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 42 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 42 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas record
- They have won 14 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 38 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-3 |
| 2025-06-19 | Once Caldas | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-02 | Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-26 | Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | Primera A | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.