Millonarios
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Millonarios
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.69.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
| Probability | Millonarios | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.1% | 20.7% | 10.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.1% | 20.7% | 10.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Millonarios
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.69.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar match preview
Millonarios enters the match against Alianza Valledupar with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Alianza Valledupar's chances stand at 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a 14% likelihood. Millonarios has shown a mixed recent form, recording three draws and one win in their last six matches, while Alianza Valledupar has secured two wins but also suffered three losses in their recent outings.
In terms of expected goals, Millonarios is projected to score 2.09, compared to Alianza Valledupar's 0.69. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are given a 45% probability of scoring. The recent head-to-head results show an even contest, with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar attack and defence ratings
Millonarios
Alianza Valledupar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 19 fixtures
- Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
- Deportivo Cali v Deportes Tolima — match page
- Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats
- Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
- Atletico Nacional v Once Caldas — match page
- Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats
- Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali
- Llaneros v Chico — match page
Before and after this match
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.8% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 69.1% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 10.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.7% |
| No | 55.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win | 45.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 30.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar stats
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar recent form
| Millonarios |
DDWDDD |
| Alianza Valledupar |
LLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar season so far
Millonarios record
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar record
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Alianza Valledupar | Millonarios | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Alianza Valledupar | Millonarios | Primera A | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Millonarios | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.