Deportes Tolima
vs
Millonarios
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportes Tolima
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportes Tolima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
| Probability | Deportes Tolima | Draw | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.6% | 31.3% | 39.1% |
| Market | 42.6% | 28.9% | 28.5% |
| Final | 39.3% | 29.5% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +0.6% | +2.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.22 − 1).
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios match preview
Deportes Tolima faces Millonarios in their upcoming Primera A match, with the model assigning Deportes Tolima a 39% chance of winning, while Millonarios has a 32% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Deportes Tolima, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Expected goals for Deportes Tolima stand at 0.92, compared to Millonarios' higher figure of 1.36.
Recent form shows Deportes Tolima struggling with three consecutive losses and a series of draws, while Millonarios has a more positive outlook with one win and several draws. In their last three encounters, Deportes Tolima has secured one victory, while Millonarios has won twice. The model indicates a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios attack and defence ratings
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page
- Junior vs Cucuta
Before and after this match
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 39.3% | 2.54 | -3.2% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 39.3% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Millonarios | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win | 11.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 70.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.9% | |
| 0-1 | 11.6% |
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios stats
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios recent form
| Deportes Tolima |
WLLLDD |
| Millonarios |
DDWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportes Tolima and Millonarios season so far
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 15 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 39 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 39 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
Millonarios record
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Millonarios | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Deportes Tolima | Millonarios | Primera A | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Millonarios | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.6%, draw 28.9%, away 28.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.20 | 3.26 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.19 | 3.43 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 2.93 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .