Junior
vs
Cucuta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Junior
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Junior is the favourite, not a value bet.
Junior vs Cucuta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Junior vs Cucuta
| Probability | Junior | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.3% | 27.8% | 26.9% |
| Market | 60.3% | 21.8% | 17.9% |
| Final | 56.6% | 23.3% | 20.1% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +1.5% | +2.3% |
Why Junior
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.13.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.3% per unit staked (our 56.6% × 1.55 − 1).
Junior vs Cucuta match preview
Junior faces Cucuta in a Primera A clash on November 10, 2026. According to our model, Junior has a 58% probability of winning, while Cucuta stands at 19%, with a 23% chance for a draw. The expected goals for Junior are 1.53, compared to Cucuta's 1.13, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Junior, occurring at a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Junior struggling with a sequence of results that includes one win, two draws, and three losses. In contrast, Cucuta has been in better shape, winning four of their last six matches. The head-to-head record from their last encounter indicates no wins for either team, with one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Junior and Cucuta expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Junior and Cucuta attack and defence ratings
Junior
Cucuta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page
Before and after this match
Junior vs Cucuta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Junior | 56.6% | 1.77 | -3.7% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Junior | 56.6% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Cucuta | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Junior win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Junior vs Cucuta stats
Junior and Cucuta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Junior and Cucuta season so far
Junior record
- They have won 17 of their 41 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 41 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 41 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 14 penalties (79%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta record
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Junior vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Cucuta | Junior | Primera A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Junior vs Cucuta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.3%, draw 21.8%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.25 | 5.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.25 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | 4.29 | 5.33 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.76 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .