Santa Fe
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santa Fe
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Santa Fe is the favourite, not a value bet.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
| Probability | Santa Fe | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 32.1% | 18.3% |
| Market | 55.8% | 25.5% | 18.6% |
| Final | 54.3% | 27.2% | 18.6% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +1.6% | -0.1% |
Why Santa Fe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (our 54.3% × 1.70 − 1).
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto match preview
Santa Fe is favored to win against Deportivo Pasto with a 60% probability, while a draw stands at 27% and Deportivo Pasto at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Santa Fe, with an 18% likelihood. Expected goals indicate Santa Fe at 1.55 and Deportivo Pasto at 0.57, suggesting a significant advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Santa Fe has recorded two wins in their last three matches, while Deportivo Pasto has struggled, with only one win in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Santa Fe with one win and two draws in their last three encounters against Deportivo Pasto, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.92
Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto attack and defence ratings
Santa Fe
Deportivo Pasto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas — team news & stats
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page
- Junior vs Cucuta
Before and after this match
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 54.3% | 1.84 | -1.6% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 54.3% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 18.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.9% |
| No | 64.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.2% |
| 0-0 | 15.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto stats
Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto recent form
| Santa Fe |
LLWWLW |
| Deportivo Pasto |
WLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto season so far
Santa Fe record
- They have won 16 of their 39 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 39 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 39 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Pasto record
- They have won 13 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Deportivo Pasto | Santa Fe | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Deportivo Pasto | Santa Fe | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Santa Fe | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.8%, draw 25.5%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.70 | 5.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.65 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.63 | 5.27 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.28 | 4.25 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .