Once Caldas
vs
Águilas Doradas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Once Caldas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Once Caldas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas
| Probability | Once Caldas | Draw | Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.5% | 34.3% | 25.2% |
| Market | 53.2% | 25.9% | 20.9% |
| Final | 50.0% | 28.0% | 22.0% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +2.1% | +1.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 50.0% × 1.78 − 1).
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas match preview
Once Caldas hosts Águilas Doradas in a match where the probabilities favor the home team at 43%, with a 33% chance of a draw and 24% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 15%. Once Caldas has shown solid recent form, with their last six matches resulting in three wins and three draws. In contrast, Águilas Doradas has a mixed record, with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six outings.
The expected goals for this fixture indicate that Once Caldas is projected to score 1.18, while Águilas Doradas is expected to net 0.82. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 40%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 32%. In their last three encounters, Once Caldas has secured one win and two draws against Águilas Doradas, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.87
Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas attack and defence ratings
Once Caldas
Águilas Doradas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 18 fixtures
- Chico v Internacional de Bogota — match page
- Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin — match page
- Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pereira — match page
- America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto — team news & stats
- Jaguares vs Bucaramanga — team news & stats
- Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- Alianza Valledupar v Llaneros — match page
Before and after this match
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 50.0% | 2.00 | -3.2% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 50.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Águilas Doradas | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.4% |
| No | 62.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Once Caldas win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.7% |
| 1-0 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas stats
Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas recent form
| Once Caldas |
WDDWWD |
| Águilas Doradas |
WWLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas season so far
Once Caldas record
- They have won 14 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 38 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas record
- They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Once Caldas | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | Primera A | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-20 | Once Caldas | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-26 | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-05 | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | Primera A | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-12 | Once Caldas | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-19 | Once Caldas | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2022-01-29 | Águilas Doradas | Once Caldas | Primera A | 1-1 |
| 2021-09-11 | Once Caldas | Águilas Doradas | Primera A | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.2%, draw 25.9%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.55 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.59 | 4.60 |
| SBO | 1.65 | 3.25 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .