Deportivo Pereira
vs
Deportes Tolima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportes Tolima
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportes Tolima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
| Probability | Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 33.7% | 23.7% |
| Market | 18.6% | 25.1% | 56.3% |
| Final | 24.6% | 27.3% | 48.2% |
| Edge | +6.0% | +2.2% | -8.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.6% per unit staked (our 48.2% × 1.67 − 1).
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima match preview
Deportivo Pereira faces Deportes Tolima in an upcoming Primera A match, with probabilities indicating a 25% chance of a home win for Pereira, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 48% likelihood of an away victory for Tolima. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals for Deportivo Pereira stand at 1.13, while Deportes Tolima is projected at 0.77.
Recent form shows Deportivo Pereira with a record of D-W-D-D-L-L, while Deportes Tolima has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-D-D. In their last three encounters, Deportivo Pereira has not secured a win, with 0 victories, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Deportes Tolima. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.90
Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Pereira
Deportes Tolima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe
- Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional
- Millonarios vs America de Cali
- Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportes Tolima | 48.2% | 2.08 | -8.2% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pereira | 24.6% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Deportes Tolima | 48.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.7% |
| No | 62.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win | 7.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 76.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.3% |
| 1-0 | 15.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima stats
Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima recent form
| Deportivo Pereira |
DWDDLL |
| Deportes Tolima |
LLLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima season so far
Deportivo Pereira record
- They have won 3 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportes Tolima record
- They have won 15 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 38 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Deportes Tolima | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Deportes Tolima | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-14 | Deportivo Pereira | Deportes Tolima | Primera A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.6%, draw 25.1%, away 56.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.93 | 3.70 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 3.65 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 5.00 | 3.70 | 1.64 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.70 | 1.63 |