Bucaramanga
vs
Atletico Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Nacional
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Nacional is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional
| Probability | Bucaramanga | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.7% | 29.2% | 39.1% |
| Market | 33.4% | 27.5% | 39.0% |
| Final | 33.0% | 28.0% | 39.1% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.4% | +0.0% |
Why Atletico Nacional
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.5% per unit staked (our 39.1% × 2.42 − 1).
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional match preview
Bucaramanga faces Atletico Nacional in an upcoming Primera A match, with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Bucaramanga has a 33% chance of winning, while Atletico Nacional is slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Expected goals suggest Bucaramanga will generate 1.19, compared to Atletico Nacional's 1.35.
In terms of recent form, Bucaramanga has struggled with two losses and two draws in their last five matches, while Atletico Nacional has shown stronger performance, winning four of their last five games. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters is even, with each team securing one win. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 53%, indicating a potentially balanced match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional attack and defence ratings
Bucaramanga
Atletico Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 17 fixtures
- Llaneros v Junior — match page
- Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar — match page
- Deportivo Cali vs Chico — team news & stats
- Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC — match page
- Cucuta vs Santa Fe
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima — team news & stats
- Millonarios vs America de Cali
- Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 39.1% | 2.56 | +0.0% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 33.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Atletico Nacional | 39.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% |
| No | 47.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional stats
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional recent form
| Bucaramanga |
LLDDWW |
| Atletico Nacional |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional season so far
Bucaramanga record
- They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Nacional record
- They have won 28 of their 40 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 40 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 40 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Atletico Nacional | Bucaramanga | Primera A | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Bucaramanga | Atletico Nacional | Primera A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 27.5%, away 39.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.36 | 2.36 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.36 | 2.36 |