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Primera A · ·Clausura - 5

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto

Garuda Lions Prediction: Bucaramanga

1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.56.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Bucaramanga

Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga

Bucaramanga 58%
Draw 25%
Deportivo Pasto 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Bucaramanga wins
58%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
89%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
37%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
16% of simulated outcomes

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBucaramangaDrawDeportivo Pasto
Model65.7%24.0%10.3%
Market55.6%25.8%18.6%
Final58.1%25.4%16.5%
Edge+2.5%-0.4%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Bucaramanga

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.56.
  • The market prices Bucaramanga below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (our 58.1% × 1.75 − 1).

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto match preview

Bucaramanga enters this match with a probability of 58% to win, while Deportivo Pasto holds a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Bucaramanga, with an expected goals tally of 1.77 for Bucaramanga compared to 0.56 for Deportivo Pasto. Recent form shows Bucaramanga with two wins in their last five matches, while Deportivo Pasto has also managed two wins but has struggled with consistency.

In their last ten encounters, both teams have won four matches each, indicating a competitive rivalry. The model suggests a 41% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score. Overall, the confidence grade for this match is rated as C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bucaramanga ↓ / Deportivo Past → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 16% 11% 2 15% 9% 3 9% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto expected goals

Bucaramanga 1.77
Deportivo Pasto 0.56

Total expected goals: 2.33

Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto attack and defence ratings

Bucaramanga

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Deportivo Pasto

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - 5 fixtures

Primera A

Before and after this match

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bucaramanga 58.1% 1.72 +2.5% 1.75
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.8% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 63.3% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.5% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Bucaramanga win 39.3% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bucaramanga58.1%
Draw25.4%
Deportivo Pasto16.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.2%
Under 2.558.8%
Both teams to scoreYes36.7%
No63.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.5%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)41.9%
Handicap -1Bucaramanga win39.3%
Push (exactly one goal)26.3%
Loss34.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.2%
2-015.2%
0-010.7%
Compare prices for this pick

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto stats

Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto recent form

newest first
Bucaramanga LLDDWW
Deportivo Pasto WLLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto season so far

league record

Bucaramanga record

  • They have won 11 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Pasto record

  • They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Bucaramanga wins 2Draws 4Deportivo Pasto wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-06Deportivo PastoBucaramangaPrimera A0-0
2025-11-14Deportivo PastoBucaramangaPrimera A3-0
2025-05-25BucaramangaDeportivo PastoPrimera A2-1
2024-10-24BucaramangaDeportivo PastoCopa Colombia0-0
2024-10-18Deportivo PastoBucaramangaCopa Colombia1-2
2024-08-24Deportivo PastoBucaramangaPrimera A1-2
2024-02-20BucaramangaDeportivo PastoPrimera A1-0
2023-09-21BucaramangaDeportivo PastoPrimera A0-2
2023-04-13Deportivo PastoBucaramangaPrimera A1-0
2022-08-07Deportivo PastoBucaramangaPrimera A1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.6%, draw 25.8%, away 18.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.67 3.55 5.03
Bet365 1.67 3.75 5.00
BetVictor 1.65 3.60 5.00
Betano 1.75 3.75 5.40
Dafabet 1.67 3.70 5.00
Marathonbet 1.65 3.55 5.05
Pinnacle 1.68 3.64 5.46
SBO 1.60 3.26 4.29
William Hill 1.67 3.40 5.00
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 —
X 3.60 ▲ +0.05
2 5.00 ▼ -0.02

6 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Bucaramanga Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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